Strong Demand Lifts U.S. Corn Market, While European Prices Struggle with Rising U.S. Imports

The U.S. corn market benefits from high export demand, especially from Mexico, while European prices face downward pressure from increased U.S. imports. On Friday, the CBOT December corn contract rose by 3.75 cents, closing at 414.5 cents per bushel (around 151 euros per ton). Despite a weekly loss of 0.75 cents (0.2%), the U.S. contract closed higher for the day, highlighting the strong U.S. demand.

Meanwhile, European prices continued their decline. Euronext's March contract in Paris dropped 1 euro to 206.50 euros per ton. This was the third consecutive weekly decline, totaling a loss of 5.50 euros (2.6%). Current conditions reveal a strong divergence between U.S. corn market demand and European prices.

U.S. Corn Market Demand Fuels Strong Export Growth

Demand for U.S. corn is rising, with Mexico as a key buyer. The USDA recently reported a sale to Mexico totaling 781,322 tons, most of which will ship in 2024/25. As of October 24, U.S. corn export commitments reached 25.82 million tons, up 41% year-over-year. This already fulfills 44% of the USDA’s annual forecast.

European Corn Prices Under Pressure from U.S. Imports

In Europe, lower yields and a delayed harvest have pushed prices down. U.S. imports help to meet the shortfall. By October 25, U.S. corn exports to the EU had reached 1.2 million tons, up from 88,000 tons last year. Total EU corn imports rose by 8% to 6.43 million tons.

Investor Adjustments and Strong Ethanol Demand

Investor sentiment is shifting, with reduced bearish positions on corn. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported a drop in net short positions by 53,796 contracts, down to 17,703 as of October 29. This is the lowest level since August 2023. Ethanol demand also supports the corn market. In September, grain crushing reached 440.16 million bushels, a six-year high for this month.

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