News

Michael

Nov 6, 2024

Rapeseed and Soybeans: US Elections and Weaker Vegetable Oil Prices Weigh on Markets

Rapeseed and Soybeans: US Elections and Weaker Vegetable Oil Prices Weigh on Markets

Rapeseed and Soybeans: US Elections and Weaker Vegetable Oil Prices Weigh on Markets

Paris/Chicago, November 6 – European and global vegetable oil and commodity markets have seen significant movements in recent days, as political and fundamental factors impact price trends.

On the Euronext in Paris, rapeseed continued its downward trend for the third consecutive day on Tuesday, dropping by 4.25 EUR per ton to settle at 511.75 EUR/t. In the United States, soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) initially posted slight gains on Tuesday, with the January contract up 4.5 cents to 366.85 EUR/t (1,001.75 ct/bu or approximately 27.22 kg). However, early Wednesday morning, initial results from the US elections triggered a drop in the soybean market.

After former President Donald Trump secured the key swing states of Georgia and North Carolina and showed stronger results in other states compared to the last election, traders estimated a higher likelihood of his return to the White House. This sparked a wave of selling in the soybean market. By 7:30 a.m. German time, the January contract had fallen by 15.75 cents to about 359.85 EUR/t (986 ct/bu), as a potential Trump victory raised concerns about US-China trade relations. A deterioration in these relations could negatively impact US soybean exports. At the same time, US stock futures, government bond yields, and the dollar rose, while most commodities lost ground.

Meanwhile, weaker vegetable oil prices are also weighing on the rapeseed market. Canola futures on the ICE in Winnipeg hit a two-week low, and Malaysian palm oil futures declined on Tuesday after four consecutive sessions of gains. Ahead of a conference by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), scheduled from November 6 to 8 in Bali, profit-taking led to losses. Despite recent price declines, palm oil fundamentals remain relatively stable.

Soybean oil prices in China and the US also saw declines. Soybean oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped by 0.74%, palm oil by 0.76%, and soybean oil on the CBoT slipped by nearly 1%.

Meanwhile, soybean imports into the European Union have reached 4.03 million tons from the beginning of the season in July to November 3, compared with 3.96 million tons last year. Rapeseed imports have also risen, currently totaling 1.92 million tons, up from 1.78 million tons in the previous year.

Markets are now closely watching the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Thursday, as well as the USDA's WASDE report expected on Friday.
This website uses cookies to ensure you get the best experience on our website. Learn more