Ukraine’s wheat prices have remained stable, closely tracking global trends. Global wheat quotations rose by 1.6-1.8% this week, but Ukrainian prices stayed steady, pressured by lower EU prices. A recent Egyptian tender highlights Ukraine's competitiveness, with its wheat among the lowest on an FOB basis, showing readiness for increased exports.

Egypt and Algeria Wheat Purchases Reflect Price Differences

Egypt’s GASC recently bought 290,000 tons of wheat from Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria at $274,82/t C&F, up $9/t from August. Meanwhile, Algeria procured 600,000 tons at $263/t C&F, highlighting ample affordable wheat supplies in the global market.

Futures Market Trends

Yesterday, wheat futures saw minor gains in key US markets:

• Soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago rose 0.1% to $209/t (+1.8% for the week, -4.4% for the month).
• Hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City gained 0.8% to $209.8/t (+1.7%, -5.8%).
• Hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis increased 0.9% to $222.3/t (+1.6%, -6.6%).

December wheat futures on Paris’s Euronext fell 1.5% to €213,75/t (about $232.5/t), staying stable over the week but down 7% for the month. This drop reflects a month-long trend, driven by high supplies and winter wheat sowing in Ukraine, the US, and Russia.

US and Ukrainian Wheat Exports

The USDA’s Crop Progress report shows 87% of winter wheat has been sown in the US, with 41% rated as good or excellent, up from last week. US wheat exports decreased by 34% to 193.5 thousand tons for the week, with 2024/25 exports reaching 9.75 million tons, 34% above last year’s pace.

In Ukraine, Black Sea port prices held at $210-214/t (UAH 9,800-10,100/t) for food wheat and $203-205/t (UAH 9,500-9,600/t) for feed wheat. Domestic processors, facing tight supplies, raised food wheat prices to UAH 9,300-9,600/t for mill deliveries.

By November 4, Ukraine had exported 7.9 million tons of wheat in 2024/25, up 62% over last year’s 4.87 million tons. Winter wheat sowing has reached 4.3 million hectares or 96% of planned areas, though dry conditions in eastern Ukraine have caused delays.

Upcoming Global Harvests Could Impact Black Sea Prices

Russia’s wheat exports rose to 5.6 million tons in October, up from 5.1 million tons in September. With harvests in Australia and Argentina expected to boost global supplies, Black Sea wheat prices may stabilize or dip in the near term.

Conclusion

Global wheat trends are maintaining steady prices for Ukrainian wheat, giving Ukrainian farmers a competitive position. Rising production in other regions could soften prices, offering strategic export opportunities for Ukraine. As global dynamics shift, Ukraine’s wheat sector stands to benefit from adaptable export strategies to meet international demand.





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