In 2024, Vietnam’s pepper exports surpassed $1 billion, reaching $1,11 billion in the first ten months, the highest since 2017. October exports alone totaled 18,000 tons worth $120 million. Rising global pepper prices boosted export values, with black pepper averaging $4,971 per ton and white pepper at $6,626 per ton—both significantly higher than the previous year.

Dominant Presence in U.S. and EU Markets

Vietnam remains a key supplier to the U.S. and EU. In the first eight months of 2024, the U.S. imported 63,000 tons of pepper valued at $307 million, with Vietnam supplying 78% of the volume and 77% of the value. The EU imported 45,000 tons from non-EU countries, valued at $233 million, with Vietnam accounting for 66% in volume and 63% in value, marking significant growth from the previous year.

Near-Term Challenges and 2025 Forecast

While 2024 has shown strong performance, growth may slow in the last quarter due to limited supply in Vietnam and lower demand from China. However, the outlook for 2025 is positive, with a recovery in demand from China and tight global supply as Brazil and Indonesia face reduced output.

Future Price Trends and Market Dynamics

Global pepper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, driven by limited supply and seasonal demand from the U.S., EU, and Asia. Although temporary declines may occur, tight supply from key producers should stabilize prices, with potential for future increases. Vietnam's delayed 2025 harvest, affected by heatwaves, will likely contribute to supply constraints, favoring higher prices.

Domestic Strategies and Farmer Resilience

Vietnam’s pepper prices are currently dipping due to Indonesia’s harvest and the coffee season. However, farmers, supported by diversified crops like coffee and durian, are holding back stock in hopes of better prices. This, combined with a reduced 2025 yield, is expected to drive higher prices in the next season.

Conclusion

Vietnam’s pepper industry has bounced back in 2024, surpassing $1 billion in exports thanks to higher prices and strong demand. While challenges remain, the long-term outlook is positive. Supply constraints and demand recovery in key markets suggest Vietnam’s pepper exports will continue to rise into 2025, maintaining its global leadership.





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