Low Raisin Production in India and Turkey Drives Prices
Low Production Levels Keep Raisin Prices Steady
This year, India and Turkey, two major raisin-producing regions, are experiencing a significant decline in output. In India, raisin production for 2024 is estimated at 16,000–17,000 carts (1 cart = 10 tonnes), a sharp drop from 24,000–25,000 carts in 2023 and 18,000–20,000 carts in 2022. Turkey, typically producing around 300,000 tonnes, expects a 30-40% decline, reducing output to an estimated 180,000–200,000 tonnes. This shortage has fueled market speculation and kept raisin prices elevated, despite reduced demand following Diwali.Limited Stocks and New Crop Projection
Reports indicate that major raisin-producing states in India currently hold around 5,000–5,500 carts of stock. This limited supply may not meet demand until the next crop arrives in February-March. This might keep prices steady or slightly rising in the interim. In key markets like Sangli and Tasgaon in Maharashtra, raisin prices range from USD 1,90 – 2,35 per kg based on quality, with a significant price drop unlikely until new stocks arrive.A Sangli-based trader mentioned that initial stock levels were around 4,000–4,500 carts at the beginning of the year. This year, however, stocks may run out before the February harvest. Because the demand is anticipated to remain strong during the wedding season.
Export Demand for Indian Raisins
India is known for high-quality raisins, with annual exports estimated at 3,000–3,500 carts. Despite reduced production, export demand remains steady due to the superior quality of Indian raisins compared to other countries. Major trading hubs in Maharashtra, Sangli, and Tasgaon are set to reopen on November 20, when auctions for the remaining stock will resume.Conclusion
Raisin prices in India are expected to remain firm or rise slightly, driven by reduced production, limited stock, and steady export demand. With new arrivals not expected until early 2025, the upcoming wedding season and stock depletion will likely sustain price levels, with weather and harvest timing being key factors in the coming months.Click here to reach our trading platfrom CMBroker
