Indian Cardamom Set to Benefit as Guatemala’s Production Slumps

Indian cardamom exporters anticipate a surge in shipments to Gulf markets ahead of the Ramadan season in February 2025. As there is a substantial drop in Guatemala's cardamom harvest. Reports indicate Guatemala’s 2024-25 production is projected to decline by around 44%, with damage from thrips and early harvesting practices reducing yields. Output may fall to 17,000–20,000 tonnes, nearly 40-50% lower than last season. This anticipated shortfall could boost demand for Indian cardamom, creating export opportunities in Gulf markets where cardamom is essential for Ramadan preparations.

Tough India Facing Crop Challenges

India’s cardamom production also faces challenges, with yields down by 50% this season. Prices have surged as old crop inventories are nearly exhausted. According to S.B. Prabhakar, a cardamom grower in Idukki, Guatemala’s cardamom prices are currently about 30% higher than India’s, making Indian exports more appealing in Gulf markets. Indian cardamom prices are expected to reach approximately USD 420 per kg between January and March 2025, positioning it as a cost-effective alternative.

Despite these opportunities, market volatility poses challenges. SKM Dhanavanthan, an exporter based in Bodinayakanur, noted that tight crop conditions in both India and Guatemala make it difficult to meet demand without significant price hikes. Excessive price increases, driven partly by speculation and unregulated private auctions, could hinder Indian exports. Middle Eastern buyers, significant consumers of Indian cardamom, are cautious about the inflated domestic prices, potentially impacting demand.

Impact of Cheaper Imports

As domestic prices rise, there may be an influx of cheaper cardamom imports, particularly from Guatemala. Guatemalan imports could undercut Indian cardamom locally, affecting both sales and export volume. P.C. Punnoose, General Manager of KCPMC, a prominent Indian auctioneer, noted increased overseas inquiries post-Diwali, with prices stabilizing above USD 300 per kg. However, recent snail infestations in Indian plantations are causing quality concerns, which could impact yield if not managed.

Conclusion

With Ramadan approaching, Indian cardamom exporters have a window to expand in Gulf markets, supported by Guatemala’s production drop and seasonal demand. Balancing prices, maintaining quality, and addressing supply challenges will be key for India to strengthen its position in the global cardamom market.





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