Wheat Futures Drop on Euronext and CBoT – Rising Dollar and Weak Exports Weigh on Market

Hamburg, November 15 – Wheat futures on Euronext significantly declined on Tuesday. The most-traded March contract fell by 3 EUR to 223.25 EUR per ton, reaching its lowest since late August. U.S. exchanges also posted notable losses, with the December wheat future on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) dropping by 13.25 cents to 552.25 ct/bu, marking a two-and-a-half-month low.

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More Substantial Dollar Pressures U.S. Wheat Market

U.S. wheat trading came under pressure from the continued rise of the U.S. dollar, while the euro hit its lowest level against the dollar in over a year. The extent of losses on Euronext surprised many market participants. The Western European market is struggling with weak export demand and low Black Sea export prices. On Tuesday, Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for December delivery traded at FOB prices of 228 to 230 USD per ton (around 215 to 217 EUR/t), roughly 10 EUR below Hamburg port prices. However, supply from Russia and Ukraine is expected to decrease in the coming months, which could drive prices higher at Russian ports. Additionally, the fact that Russia's winter wheat acreage is smaller than a year ago, combined with unfavourable conditions for crop emergence, is supporting prices.

EU Imports and Exports Decline Year-on-Year

According to the European Commission on Tuesday, EU wheat exports totalled 8.34 million tons from July 1 to November 10. This is well below the 11.96 million tons exported during the same period last year. Compared to the previous week’s 7.76 million tons, exports increased by 580,000 tons. France exported 900,000 tons in one week, a gain of 240,000 tons, while Germany’s export loadings reached 770,000 tons. Romania remains the largest supplier, with 2.486 million tons, followed by Lithuania (1.124 million tons) and Latvia (1.038 million tons). EU wheat imports stand at 3.234 million tons, 3% below last year’s level, with more than half (1.894 million tons) delivered to Spain. Ukraine remains the top supplier, with 2.29 million tons. EU barley exports reached 1.77 million tons (previous year: 2.83 million tons), representing a 70,000-ton increase from the last week.

Positive Developments in U.S. Wheat Exports

Weekly export inspection data from the U.S. showed that 347,321 tons of wheat were shipped in the week ending November 7, at the upper end of expectations (175,000 to 350,000 tons). This marks a 68.8% increase from the previous week and a 41.9% rise from the same week last year, confirming more robust U.S. wheat demand than last year. Total shipments in the current fiscal year amount to 10.11 million tons, 28.8% above previous year’s level.

Progress in U.S. Winter Wheat Planting

According to the Crop Progress Report released after the close of trading, 91% of U.S. winter wheat had been planted as of November 10, with 76% of the crop emerging, 2 and 3 percentage points above average levels, respectively. Condition ratings were raised by 3% to 44% good-to-excellent, reflecting the positive effects of recent rainfall, as expected by analysts.