Soybean prices in Ukraine are falling as export demand declines. Favorable planting in Brazil and Pakistan’s GMO policy changes are adding to the global supply. With Brazil progressing on planting and South American soybean imports rising in the EU, Ukrainian soybeans face stiff competition.

Brazilian Soybean Planting Progress and Expectations

In Brazil, 66% of the planned soybean area was sown by November 10, up from 57.3% this time last year, according to Conab. Favorable rainfall conditions are improving crop development and could lead to a record harvest of 169 million tons in the 2024/2025 marketing year. While Brazilian soybean exports dropped in October to 4.71 million tons—15.9% lower than last October—soybean meal exports hit 2.3 million tons, marking the highest October export volume since 1997.

Argentina’s Soybean Planting Also Accelerates

Recent rains have helped Argentina begin its soybean planting under favorable conditions, adding to potential increases in global soybean supplies. Both Brazil and Argentina’s robust planting seasons are likely to sustain pressure on soybean prices.

Global Price Trends

In the U.S., November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell by 1.2% to USD 371 per ton on November 10, reacting to a USDA report that cut the U.S. soybean crop forecast from 124.7 million to 121.4 million tons. Weak demand from China and potential trade policy shifts have kept global soybean prices under pressure.

Ukraine’s Declining Purchase Prices for Soybeans

In Ukraine, the lack of buyers for soybeans has led to price reductions. Over the past week, purchase prices for GMO soybeans in ports dropped by 200-300 UAH per ton to 18,000-18,200 UAH/t (USD 370-385/t). Processors have followed suit, reducing prices by the same amount to 17,700-18,000 UAH/t for delivery to their facilities.

Meanwhile, Black Sea port prices for non-GMO soybeans have fallen by 20-30% to USD 405-430 per ton (UAH 19,000-20,000/t), down significantly from earlier in the season when premiums for non-GMO soybeans reached USD 65-80 per ton. Many processors are pausing their purchases in hopes of further price reductions.

Pakistan’s GMO Soybean Import Policy Shifts Impact Demand

A key factor in recent price drops is Pakistan's decision to permit imports of U.S. GMO soybeans, bypassing certain biosafety assessments. The National Biosafety Committee (NBC) granted import licenses to 42 importers for GMO soybean products. This policy change has significantly impacted demand for Ukraine’s non-GMO soybeans, causing prices to fall by USD 30-40 per ton.

Conclusion: 

With an overstocked soybean meal market and increased competition from South America, Ukrainian processors are likely to reduce their soybean processing. Unless demand recovers in key markets like China, which often pays premiums for GMO-free soybeans, soybean prices in Ukraine may remain under pressure.

Soybeans





Click here to reach our trading platfrom CMBroker