Soybean Prices in Ukraine Fall as Global Market Dynamics Shift
Demand prices for soybeans in Ukraine have dropped by $30-40 per ton, reflecting broader global market shifts. This decline comes as both local and international factors impact supply, demand, and pricing.
However, Brazil's soybean exports in October dropped to 4.71 million tons, down from 6.1 million tons in September and 15.9% less than the same period last year. Despite this, soybean meal exports rose sharply to 2.3 million tons, a 24.4% increase compared to October 2023, marking the highest October figure since 1997.
Weak demand from China also pressures global markets, especially with speculation that former U.S. President Trump might resume trade tensions, potentially curbing Chinese purchases of American soybeans.
In Ukraine, purchase prices for GMO soybeans at ports fell by UAH 200-300 per ton to UAH 18,000-18,200 per ton ($370-385 per ton) last week. This price drop has allowed processors to lower their buying rates by the same margin, bringing them to UAH 17,700-18,000 per ton for delivery to processing plants.
Non-GMO soybean prices in Black Sea ports have also declined by 20-30% to $405-430 per ton (UAH 19,000-20,000 per ton), although earlier in the season, these soybeans commanded a premium of $65-80 per ton. Processors are holding off on purchases, expecting further price reductions.
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Brazil's Soybean Outlook Remains Strong
Brazil's soybean sowing is progressing well, with 66% of the planned area sown as of November 10, compared to 57.3% last year, according to Conab. Favorable rains are improving crop conditions, and the sowing period remains open, potentially increasing the total planting area. Analysts predict a record 169 million tons of soybeans could be harvested in the 2024/25 marketing year.However, Brazil's soybean exports in October dropped to 4.71 million tons, down from 6.1 million tons in September and 15.9% less than the same period last year. Despite this, soybean meal exports rose sharply to 2.3 million tons, a 24.4% increase compared to October 2023, marking the highest October figure since 1997.
Argentina Sees Favorable Planting Conditions
Argentina has begun planting soybeans, supported by recent rainfall that has created ideal conditions for crop development.Price Pressure Hits U.S. and Ukrainian Soybeans
On the Chicago Board of Trade, November soybean futures declined by 1.2% to $371 per ton, extending losses to 2% after the release of a bullish USDA report. The report lowered the forecast for U.S. soybean production to 121.4 million tons, down from 124.7 million tons.Weak demand from China also pressures global markets, especially with speculation that former U.S. President Trump might resume trade tensions, potentially curbing Chinese purchases of American soybeans.
In Ukraine, purchase prices for GMO soybeans at ports fell by UAH 200-300 per ton to UAH 18,000-18,200 per ton ($370-385 per ton) last week. This price drop has allowed processors to lower their buying rates by the same margin, bringing them to UAH 17,700-18,000 per ton for delivery to processing plants.
Non-GMO soybean prices in Black Sea ports have also declined by 20-30% to $405-430 per ton (UAH 19,000-20,000 per ton), although earlier in the season, these soybeans commanded a premium of $65-80 per ton. Processors are holding off on purchases, expecting further price reductions.
Pakistan’s Decision and Its Impact
The Pakistani government has authorized the import of GMO soybeans from the U.S., bypassing Cartagena Protocol risk assessments. Licenses have been granted to 42 importers, allowing them to import soybeans for food, feed, and processing. These imports contain 47 genetic elements, which has further weakened the demand for non-GMO soybeans in Ukraine.Conclusion:Â
Ukrainian soybean prices face downward pressure due to oversupply, declining demand, and international developments. Farmers and processors might find some relief if Chinese demand for non-GMO soybeans rebounds, but global uncertainties persist. For now, traders and producers should monitor the markets closely and consider holding off on sales to wait for potential price recoveries.Click here to reach our trading platfrom CMBroker
