Market Report:  Shows Mixed Signals

Rheinfelden-Degerfelden, November 16, 2024—The Turkish hazelnut market presents mixed trends. Raw material prices soften while export prices rise due to exchange rate fluctuations and structural pricing adjustments.

Raw Material Market Stabilizes While Export Prices Increase

The market leader has maintained a cautious approach, leading to a slight drop in raw material prices. Observers believe significant quantities of hazelnuts are still being exported indirectly to circumvent price restrictions. The market leader is estimated to have covered around 50% of its requirements, which, while below expectations, is sufficient to ease immediate market pressure.

Export prices, however, have shown a noticeable uptick. This is attributed to exchange rate movements and rising production costs, including a planned minimum wage increase in Turkey starting January 2025. Sellers are factoring in higher safety margins, especially for deliveries scheduled for the upcoming year.

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Long-Term Quality Concerns Persist

While this year's harvest quality has been broadly accepted, quality remains a critical concern. Market participants report uncertainty about the durability of hazelnuts in the latter half of the season. Sellers of raw hazelnuts are becoming increasingly hesitant to offer forward contracts.

A divided market is emerging, with high-quality, raw hazelnuts priced higher than processed products. However, as raw hazelnuts serve as the benchmark for pricing, their fluctuations also impact processed goods.

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Exchange Rates and Exports Drive Price Trends

The Turkish lira (TRY) to euro (EUR) exchange rate remains crucial. Turkish export prices have increased following the U.S. elections and a stronger dollar. Meanwhile, the domestic market in Turkey remains stable, with many factories currently not offering short-term deliveries, further tightening supply.

Export data reveals robust activity, with current-season exports surpassing those of previous years. However, depleted inventories and rising costs could impact export volumes in the coming months.

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Outlook for the Coming Weeks

Experts anticipate the market will remain calm over the next two weeks, with buyers likely waiting for price adjustments in the new year. Uncertainty about the quality and availability of kernels could contribute to further price volatility.

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Price Trends and Projections

• Raw Hazelnuts 11-13 mm DAP: Current average price at €7.67/kg.
• Processed Products: Prices continue to rise due to increasing production costs.
• Market Outlook: Rising production costs and sustained demand may increase prices in the long term.