Corn Prices in Ukraine Drop Amidst Global Market Pressures
Export Prices Face Downward Pressure
Export demand prices for corn in Ukraine’s Black Sea ports have fallen by $2-3/t, settling at $194-195/t or UAH 9,050-9,200/t. This decline stems from heightened competition with Brazilian and American corn in the European Union market.Currency Shifts and Weak Demand Complicate Trade
The euro’s depreciation against the dollar has made the European market less attractive for Ukrainian corn exporters. Additionally, weak demand from China has left Ukraine looking to Turkey for potential market support later in the season.Turkey’s Growing Role in Corn Imports
Turkey has significantly increased its corn imports in 2024, rising from 1.9 million tons in 2023 to 3.2 million tons, of which 1.6 million tons came from Ukraine. Despite a domestic harvest of 7 million tons (down from 8.4 million tons in 2023), Turkey’s consumption of 8.4 million tons creates a supply gap. Recent reductions in import duties from 130% to 5% boosted Ukrainian corn supplies, though falling prices in Turkey have recently dampened sales.If Turkey reduces import duties further in the second half of the season, Ukraine could see a surge in exports.
Ukraine’s Export Performance
Between November 1 and 13, Ukraine exported 1.05 million tons of corn, bringing total exports for the 2024/25 marketing year to 5.7 million tons—18% ahead of last year’s pace.U.S. and European Market Trends
The U.S. has harvested 95% of its corn crop as of November 10, well above the 5-year average of 84%. Despite a reduced harvest forecast in the USDA report, market prices have been relatively stable.- Chicago Exchange: December corn futures dropped 1.1% to $167.9/t but remain 4.5% higher for the month.
- Paris Market: March corn futures fell 2.3% this week to €206.25/t ($217.5/t), reflecting monthly losses of 6.9% in euros and 10% in dollars due to a weaker euro.
EU and South American Competition
The European Union has increased its corn imports by 8% in 2024/25 to 7.1 million tons, with Ukraine supplying 47% (3.36 million tons). Imports from Brazil and the U.S. have also grown, bolstered by favorable weather in Argentina and Brazil that has eased speculative pressures on prices.Brazil’s October corn exports fell to 5.66 million tons from 6.44 million tons in September, significantly below the 8.02 million tons exported in October 2023. Meanwhile, Algeria’s ONAB agency purchased at least 80,000 tons of corn from Argentina and Brazil, contributing to ongoing global competition.
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