Corn Market Report: Mixed Dynamics Amid Harvest Progress and Demand Weakness

Corn futures showed slight weakness on Tuesday as ample supply and muted demand weighed on prices.

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Price Movements

• CBoT December Futures:
  • Closed down 2 ct to 427.25 ct/bu (≈ 157.83 EUR/t).
• Euronext March Futures:
  • Declined by 1 EUR to 211.25 EUR/t.

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Market Factors

1. Weaker Soybean Prices:
   • The decline in soybean futures on Tuesday exerted downward pressure on the corn market.
2. Substantial Harvest Progress in the U.S.:
   • The Crop Progress Report (Monday evening) highlighted that 77% of U.S. cornfields have been harvested, surpassing both the prior year’s rate (72%) and the five-year average (71%).
3. South American Crop Expectations:
   • Favourable weather and strong production outlooks in South America added to the bearish sentiment.
4. Muted Export Demand:
   • The USDA reported no new export bookings on Tuesday.
   • Algeria: Issued a tender for 240,000 tons of corn from Argentina or Brazil, but results remain pending.

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EU Corn Imports

The European Union's corn imports have increased compared to last year, though sourcing dynamics are shifting:

• Total Imports (to date in 2024/25): 7.60 million tons (up from 6.83 million tons last year).
• Key Suppliers:
  • Ukraine: Largest supplier, with shipments increasing from 3.165 million tons to 3.779 million tons.
  • USA: Significant growth from 89,000 tons to 1.263 million tons.
  • Brazil: Declined from 2.736 million tons to 1.477 million tons.

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Outlook in Ukraine

The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts a 12% increase in corn acreage for the 2025 harvest, adding 500,000 ha compared to 2024. This expansion could further boost global supply and contribute to downward price pressures.