Vietnam Could Be the 3rd Largest Rice Importer by 2024

Vietnam is poised to become the third-largest importer of rice globally by 2024, despite achieving record-high rice exports in 2023. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), this reflects a significant shift in Vietnam's agricultural strategies and global market dynamics.

Record-Breaking Rice Exports in 2023

Vietnam's rice exports reached an all-time high this year, totaling 8.6 million tonnes (mt)—a 3 lakh tonne increase from earlier USDA predictions. This surge was supported by strong demand in key markets like Indonesia and the Philippines. In 2023, the General Department of Vietnam Customs reported 8.1 mt of rice exports, emphasizing Vietnam's growing prominence as a leading exporter.

The Shift to High-Quality Rice Production

Vietnamese farmers are focusing on cultivating premium aromatic rice varieties to cater to rising local and international demand. This transition has led to increased reliance on imported lower-grade rice used for purposes such as food processing and animal feed. As a result, Vietnam is estimated to import 2.9 mt of rice in 2024, marking its highest import volume ever and placing it behind the Philippines (4.7 mt) and Indonesia (3.8 mt) in global rankings.

Surge in Rice Imports and Investments

From January to September 2023, Vietnamese companies invested nearly $1 billion in rice imports, a 57.3% year-on-year increase, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. The growing reliance on imports aligns with shifts in production priorities, aiming to balance export opportunities with domestic processing needs.

Impact of Global Rice Supply and Pricing

The global rice market is experiencing adjustments after India lifted its ban on non-basmati white rice exports, stabilizing supplies and potentially lowering prices. While Vietnam's export prices for 5% broken rice remain high at $537 per tonne, they outpace competitors like Thailand ($497 per tonne), India ($488 per tonne), and Pakistan ($481 per tonne).

Conclusion: Opportunities Amid Shifts

Vietnam's strategy of focusing on high-quality rice production while importing lower-grade rice underscores its adaptability in a competitive global market. For exporters and investors, this shift offers opportunities to target niche high-value segments. However, monitoring price trends and global supply changes will be crucial for navigating this evolving landscape.





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