Oilseed Markets: Rapeseed Prices Plunge as Soybeans Face Pressure

The oilseed markets experienced significant downward pressure on Wednesday, driven by weaker vegetable oil prices and rising harvest expectations in South America. Below are the key updates:

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Euronext: Rapeseed Continues to Slide

Rapeseed prices at Euronext extended their decline, closing lower for the second consecutive day. The February front month fell by €9.25, settling at €531.50/ton. This week's cumulative loss now stands at €7.75. After nine consecutive weeks of gains, rapeseed is on track for its first weekly loss since mid-September.

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Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT): Soybeans and Oil Down

At the CBoT, soybean and soybean oil prices continued their downward trend. The January soybean contract dropped 8 cents to 990.5 ct/bu (€345/t), while soybean oil saw a 3% decline. Soybean meal, however, managed to record modest gains.

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Palm Oil Futures in Malaysia Fall Sharply

In Kuala Lumpur, palm oil futures fell by over 2% on Wednesday. Weak export demand weighed heavily on market sentiment, further pressuring prices.

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Market Drivers: Vegetable Oil Prices and South America

Oilseed markets were impacted by weaker vegetable oil prices and favorable weather forecasts in South America. Rain is expected in Brazil and Argentina in the coming days, boosting harvest expectations. This could exacerbate an already abundant global soybean supply.

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US Export News Provides Some Support

Despite overall market weakness, positive export news from the US offered some relief. The USDA announced a private sale of 202,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2024/25 marketing year. An additional 226,200 tons were sold to an unknown destination. Trade estimates for the upcoming export sales report are:

• Soybeans: 1.0–1.6 million tons (2024/25) and 0–100,000 tons (2025/26)
• Soybean Meal: 210,000–490,000 tons
• Soybean Oil: 5,000–35,000 tons

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Euronext Investors Remain Bullish

Despite recent declines, investors remain optimistic about rapeseed prices. In the week ending November 15, net-long positions in rapeseed futures and options increased slightly to 55,829 contracts, up from 53,348 contracts the previous week.

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Outlook

The oilseed markets may be at a turning point, particularly for rapeseed, which could post its first weekly loss in over two months. Future developments will hinge on export demand and weather conditions in South America.

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