Ukraine’s sunflower prices took a hit this week, dropping by UAH 1,000 per ton, as global markets for soybean and palm oil experienced sharp declines. The price adjustment reflects expectations of a broader decline in sunflower oil prices despite predictions of reduced harvests.

Global Trends in Oil Markets Trigger Local Reactions

The global market downturn began with soybean oil futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange, which fell by 7.8% in just three trading sessions. December futures now sit at USD 930 per ton, reflecting a 2.8% monthly loss and reversing nearly 15% growth from early November. This decline comes even as U.S. soybean processing ramps up, highlighting the growing bearish sentiment.

Similarly, December palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia dropped 3.2% to 4,772 ringgit per ton (USD 1,066 per ton). Over three sessions, prices plunged 6.6%, with an overall 6.9% drop over two weeks. Analysts expect palm oil prices to hover between RM 4,800 and 5,000 per ton, citing lower production and robust export demand as limiting factors against further declines.

Ukrainian Sunflower Prices Adjust in Response

In Ukraine, processors responded by reducing purchase prices for sunflowers with 50% oil content. Prices fell by UAH 1,000–1,300 per ton to a range of UAH 26,000–26,500 per ton for delivery to factories. This aligns with fears of a domino effect in the oil markets, driven by the significant downturn in both soybean and palm oil prices.

Export prices for sunflower oil at Ukrainian ports also slipped by USD 5–10 per ton to USD 1,140–1,155 per ton earlier this week. However, traders remain cautious about cutting offers further, citing supply shortages in sunflowers and sunflower oil.

Interestingly, the average global price of sunflower oil edged up by USD 5 per ton to USD 1,335 per ton, according to Trading Economics, suggesting mixed signals for market participants.

EU Market Pressures and Geopolitical Concerns

European rapeseed prices have also fallen sharply, shedding 6.3% over three days. This intensifies downward pressure on both rapeseed and sunflower oil prices. However, geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region—marked by missile attacks in Ukraine and potential disruptions to sunflower oil exports—are likely to sustain sunflower oil’s premium relative to soybean and palm oil.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

With falling global oil prices and a volatile geopolitical landscape, market participants face uncertainty. Buyers could consider short-term purchases while monitoring price trends, as further reductions in sunflower oil prices remain possible. Sellers, on the other hand, should weigh the risks of holding inventory against the potential for disruptions to supply chains that might support premiums.





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