India’s 2024 Sugar Production: What’s in Store?

India’s sugar output this marketing season is expected to fall below last year’s levels, even as domestic consumption edges higher. The industry is grappling with challenges like lower production and a massive stockpile from the previous year.

As of October, sugar mills had about 8 million tonnes of leftover stock, ensuring stable supplies. This cushion means sugar prices are unlikely to skyrocket despite the reduced production. Current estimates predict sugar production will hover between 31 and 31.5 million tonnes. With the carryover stock, the total availability could reach 39-39.5 million tonnes—more than enough to cover domestic demand, pegged at around 29 million tonnes. Exports, however, remain off the table due to the ongoing export ban.

Stable Prices Amid Industry Pressures

Although millers are urging the government to raise sugar prices to ease their financial burden, officials are reluctant to act, keeping prices steady for now. The industry is also banking on increased ethanol production, which could divert an extra 1.5-2 million tonnes of sugar, helping reduce surplus stock.

Sugar production, which began slowly this year, is picking up speed as crushing operations ramp up in major sugar-producing states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat. Many mills are now operating at full capacity, promising a boost in output as the season progresses.

What Lies Ahead?

If the current pace of cane crushing continues, India could see record sugar production by March 2025. Beyond that, however, production growth might slow down.

How Will This Impact the Market?

For consumers and businesses, there’s no immediate risk of sugar prices spiking, thanks to ample supply. Still, the government’s decisions on pricing and ethanol policy could influence the market down the line. Buyers might want to hold off on large purchases for now, but staying alert to shifts in the market could pay off as the year unfolds.





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