Supply Drops Push Garlic Prices Higher

Garlic prices have been on a bumpy ride recently, fluctuating as farmers adjust their sales. According to Sharad Duggad, a seasoned market analyst, an increase in garlic arrivals temporarily pushed prices down by $0,24 per kg last week. However, this dip was short-lived. Prices are now expected to climb back to $0,59 per kg as supplies tighten.

Madhya Pradesh, India’s garlic hub, has seen mandi arrivals fall drastically. Earlier arrivals touched 60,000–70,000 bags, but they dropped to 50,000 bags by October 22. Projections suggest a further dip to just 35,000 bags in the coming week, leaving the market with limited options and nudging prices upward.

Seasonal Demand Heats Up Garlic Movement

With Pongal celebrations on January 13 around the corner, garlic demand is intensifying. Southern states are expected to require 0.15–0.2 million bags of garlic during the festive season, driving strong movement in December and early January.

However, supply is struggling to keep pace. Madhya Pradesh, a major garlic-producing state, holds just 1 million bags in stock. Despite India’s ban on Chinese garlic imports, the commodity is still finding its way into the country via Nepal, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh, albeit at high import duties. Without these imports, prices could have risen even higher this year.

Bullish Trend is Likely to Persist

As the market awaits for the 2025 garlic harvest, prices are expected to remain on an upward trajectory. Farmers in Madhya Pradesh have planted both camel and native garlic varieties, and initial estimates point to a bumper crop. However, 15–20% of plantations have already been affected by adverse weather, adding uncertainty to the outlook.

Meanwhile, old garlic stocks are losing quality due to storage challenges, making fresh arrivals even more valuable. For traders and farmers, the next few weeks will be crucial in shaping price movements.

Conclusion: Garlic Market Prepares for Price Swings

Garlic prices are climbing, supported by limited supply, rising seasonal demand, and dwindling stocks in key regions. While a promising 2025 harvest may stabilize the market in the long term, current trends point to bullish conditions in the short term. Farmers, traders, and consumers alike should brace for fluctuations as the garlic market enters a pivotal period.





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