Market Report: ICE Sugar No.5 Records Significant Losses

ICE Sugar No.5 futures experienced widespread losses on Monday, November 25, 2024. All contracts closed lower, with the front-month March 2025 contract showing the steepest decline.

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Price Performance

• March 2025:
  • Closing price: 545.60 USD/t
  • Change: -8.00 USD (-1.47%)
  • Trading volume: 13,004 contracts
• May 2025:
  • Closing price: 543.10 USD/t
  • Change: -6.90 USD (-1.27%)
  • Trading volume: 2,985 contracts
• August 2025:
  • Closing price: 533.40 USD/t
  • Change: -5.80 USD (-1.09%)
  • Trading volume: 1,357 contracts
• October 2025:
  • Closing price: 524.20 USD/t
  • Change: -4.50 USD (-0.86%)
  • Trading volume: 123 contracts
• Long-Term Contracts (through October 2026):
  • Losses of -2.80 USD (-0.54% to -0.56%), with minimal trading activity.

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Market Drivers

1. Decline in Front-Month Contracts:
   • The March 2025 contract recorded the most significant daily loss, dropping -1.47%, driven by profit-taking and weaker market fundamentals.
2. Weaker Export Environment:
   • Export activity uncertainty in key markets like Brazil and India weighed on buyer sentiment.
3. Reduced Activity in Long-Term Contracts:
   • Limited interest in contracts beyond 2025 suggests cautious market expectations for the longer term.

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Outlook

The sugar market remains under pressure, particularly in front-month contracts, affected by profit-taking and uncertainties in the export landscape. Market participants will closely monitor export forecasts from major producers and developments in crude oil markets, which impact ethanol demand and, consequently, sugar prices.