Market Update: Rapeseed and Soybean Developments
Market Update: Rapeseed and Soybean Developments
Rapeseed Market
The rapeseed market experienced a slight recovery on Thursday after recent sharp declines. The February future on Euronext closed with a gain of 7.50 EUR, reaching 500.50 EUR/t. In the U.S., markets remained closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday.Key Drivers for Recovery:
- Investor Activity: The steep price drop earlier this week was driven by profit-taking and liquidation of net-long positions by financial investors on Euronext.
- Supply Pressure: Increased farmer sales contributed to the downward trend but have stabilized for now.
- Palm Oil Influence: Rising palm oil prices, supported by gains in vegetable oil markets in China, provided additional support to rapeseed prices. Malaysian palm oil futures rose for the fourth consecutive session.
- South American Weather: Favorable conditions in South America are weighing on rapeseed market prospects. With excellent rainfall in Argentina, 98% of soybean crops are reported to have optimal moisture conditions, dampening any bullish sentiment for rapeseed.
Soybean Market
In Argentina, soybean planting is progressing well, with 44.4% of the planned 18.6 million hectares planted, an 8.6% weekly increase. Good rainfall has significantly improved soil moisture levels.Brazil's Soybean Production:
- Record Harvest Anticipated: Agroconsult forecasts Brazil's 2024/25 soybean harvest at 172.2 million tons, a 10.7% increase from the previous season. This would surpass the 162.4 million tons record from 2022/23.
- Expanded Planting Area: Estimated at 47.5 million hectares, a 1.5% increase from the previous year.
- Exports: Brazilian soybean exports for 2025 are projected at 103.4 million tons, surpassing the 98.2 million tons expected for 2024.
Conclusion
- Rapeseed: While a modest recovery has been observed, the overall outlook remains cautious due to favourable South American conditions and strong soybean supply.
- Soybeans: Brazil continues to dominate the soybean market with record production and exports anticipated. Argentina's improved planting conditions further strengthen global supply prospects.
