Global Oilseed Markets in Flux: Rapeseed Stabilizes Amid Tariff Threats and Record Harvest Projection

Weekly Review: Recovery in Rapeseed Market Amid Mixed Signals for Oilseed Sector

1. Rapeseed Market Rebounds

The Paris rapeseed market stabilized ahead of the weekend, with the February contract closing €7.25 higher at €507.75/ton on Friday. This limited the weekly loss to just €1 (0.2%).

At the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT), soybean and soybean meal prices fell slightly, while soybean oil gained due to robust export demand. The January soybean contract increased by 0.75 cents, reaching 989.5 cents/bu (€344/ton), marking a weekly gain of 0.6%.

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2. Strong Chinese Demand for US Soybeans

China continues to purchase US soybeans heavily:

• The USDA reported nearly 1 million tons of private export sales on Friday, mainly destined for China.
• Weekly USDA data revealed soybean sales of 2.49 million tons for the 2024/25 season, exceeding expectations (1.5–2.5 million tons).
  • 1.087 million tons were shipped to China.
  • 229,000 tons to Mexico.
  • 202,000 tons to Germany.

Additionally:

• Soybean meal exports rose by 77% to 487,325 tons, setting a seasonal record.
• Soybean oil exports reached 124,792 tons, the highest weekly volume since December 2010.

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3. EU Oilseed Production Outlook for 2025

Rapeseed Production:

Strategie Grains forecasts:

• 2025 EU rapeseed harvest: 18.7 million tons (+12% compared to 2024).
• Larger harvests in Romania, France, Germany, and the Baltic states drove production growth.

Sunflower Seed Production:

• 2025 forecast: 10.5 million tons (+25% compared to 2024).
• Expanded acreage is expected as farmers capitalize on higher prices following poor 2024 yields.

Challenges:

The 2024 rapeseed harvest was affected by heavy rainfall in Western Europe, while sunflower crops suffered from drought, heatwaves, and floods in Southeast Europe. Although sowing conditions for 2025 were not ideal, they were better than the previous year.

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4. Potential Impact of US Tariffs

US President-elect Donald Trump has proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian rapeseed imports:

• This could suppress Canadian rapeseed prices.
• There are likely repercussions on the EU market as cheaper Canadian rapeseed may increase competition.

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5. Palm Oil and Global Perspectives

Palm Oil:

• Malaysian February futures rose for the fifth consecutive week:
  • Weekly increase: 8.2%, the largest since June 2023.
  • Cause: Rainfall in Malaysia is hampering already weak production.

Global Oilseed Forecasts:

• Brazil: A record soybean harvest of 172.2 million tons is expected in 2024/25.
• South America: Favorable weather conditions are supporting robust crop development.

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Conclusion

• Rapeseed Market Recovery: Stabilization after a challenging week, but the outlook remains mixed.
• EU Production: Expected increases in rapeseed and sunflower yields may ease market pressures in the medium term.
• Risks: Tariffs and global weather conditions remain key factors influencing prices.
• Short-term Perspective: The market will likely stay volatile, driven by US trade policies and potential production records in Brazil.