Wheat Futures Recover Amid Competitive Global Prices and Regional Challenges

Market Movements

• Euronext (Paris):March wheat futures rose by 2.25 EUR, closing at 224.75 EUR/t, supported by short-covering and a weak euro.
• CBoT (Chicago):March wheat futures edged up 0.25 ct, ending at 547.75 ct/bu (151.12 EUR/t).

Drivers of Price Trends

• Low prices attracted buyers, while short-covering by investors further bolstered markets.
• A weak euro provided additional support for EU wheat competitiveness.
• Black Sea Region: Competitive pricing from Russia and Ukraine weighed on EU export potential:
  • Russian wheat (12.5% protein) for Dec/Jan: 205.66–206.57 EUR/t FOB.
  • Argentinian wheat (11.5% protein): 201.11–204.75 EUR/t FOB.

EU Wheat Exports

• Total soft wheat exports (July 1 – Nov 30): 9.48 million tons (-31% YoY).
• Top exporters:
  • Romania: 2.622 million tons.
  • Latvia: 1.284 million tons.
  • Lithuania: 1.260 million tons.
  • Germany: 1.017 million tons.
  • France: 924,000 tons.
• Key buyers:
  • Nigeria: 1.6 million tons.
  • UK: 808,000 tons.
  • Morocco: 714,000 tons.
  • Egypt: 692,000 tons.
  • Algeria: 592,000 tons.

Australian Wheat: Quality Concerns

• High yields but rain-induced quality downgrades in the southeast.
• 2.5–5 million tons downgraded from milling to feed wheat (8–16% of the crop).
• Positive side: Rain improved planting conditions for the next season.

Key Takeaway

Global wheat markets are seeing mixed dynamics, with competitive Black Sea prices pressuring EU exports and weather disruptions impacting Australian crop quality.