Rapeseed and Soybean Markets: Slight Correction After Gains

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Market Developments

• Euronext:
  • After significant gains over the past four trading days, rapeseed futures slightly declined on Wednesday.
  • February Future: Down by €2 to €525.25/t.
• CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade):
  • Soybeans were pulled lower by weak soybean oil.
  • January Soybean Contract: Dropped by 8 cents to 983.75 cents/bu (€344/t).

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Market Factors

1. Rapeseed Market:
   • A correction was expected after a 7% rise over three trading days.
   • Supportive Factors: A weaker euro and poor winter crop conditions in Russia are expected to affect rapeseed.
   • Pressure: Favorable weather in South America continues to weigh on vegetable oil markets.
2. Canola Outlook:
   • StatsCan: Analysts expect a production decline to 18.51 million tonnes, down from 19.19 million tonnes last year.
   • The anticipated drop is already factored into current prices.
   • ICE (Canada):
     • January Future: Fell by CAD 8.70 to CAD 578.20.
3. Palm Oil Market:
   • Prices retreated slightly on Wednesday but began to rise again Thursday morning.
   • Supportive Factors:
     • Heavy rains are disrupting production in Malaysia.
     • Increasing demand in India and China ahead of the holiday season.

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U.S. Market and Export Reports

1. USDA Report:
   • Expected soybean bookings: 1.1–2.5 million tonnes (2024/25 season).
   • Soymeal: 150,000–600,000 tonnes.
   • Soybean oil: 10,000–70,000 tonnes.
   • Private sale: 30,000 tonnes of soybean oil to South Korea.
2. Financial Investors:
   • Net long positions in rapeseed futures and options on Euronext decreased:
     • Previous week: 54,848 contracts.
     • Current: 40,917 contracts.

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Overall, the markets display mixed dynamics. While corrections were anticipated, external factors such as weather conditions and export expectations kept the rapeseed market tense.