Chickpea Prices Keep Falling

Chickpea prices continue to fall, dropping by $0,024/kg last week and by $0,048/kg over the past month. The price of chickpeas in Delhi is currently at $0,83/kg. With demand staying low, it's unlikely that prices will go up anytime soon.

Looking at the chart, $0,80/kg is an important level for chickpeas. If prices fall below this, they could keep going down. On the other hand, prices will likely only rise if they pass $0,89/kg. However, it’s hard to predict how much prices will move due to ongoing sowing and uncertainty over Australian chickpea supplies.

Australian Chickpeas Impacting the Market

Australian chickpeas for January delivery were previously priced at $0,69-$0,69/kg. When imports opened, the price was $0,92/kg, but it has since dropped to $0,65/kg. It’s estimated that 1.5 to 2 million tonnes of chickpeas will be imported into India in December. This number is expected to rise to 2 to 2.5 million tonnes in January and 2.5 to 3 million tonnes in February 2024.

The Australian government estimates this year’s chickpea crop to be between 1.3 to 1.5 million tonnes, while private estimates suggest up to 1.8 million tonnes. India is expected to import 1.3 to 1.4 million tonnes, while 400,000 to 500,000 tonnes may be exported to other countries. With India’s import exemption lasting until March 2024, there is pressure to speed up shipments, though delays due to port issues are still a problem.

Imports As A Substitue

So far, chickpea imports have reached 2.7 to 2.8 million tonnes, with 700,000 to 800,000 tonnes currently at the port. Of these, 2 million tonnes have already been consumed, and the remaining 1.5 million tonnes could serve as a substitute for locally grown chickpeas.

The sowing of chickpeas continues, with good weather expected across India. Fresh chickpeas from the southern regions are expected in January and February, which will further affect market trends. Moving forward, the market will depend on factors like imported chickpeas, local sowing, and ongoing demand.

Conclusion

Chickpea prices continue to drop, with a key support level at $0,80/kg. The ongoing sowing season and imports, especially from Australia, will continue to affect the market in the coming months. While domestic production remains steady, imports will play a significant role in shaping the market through early 2024.





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