Rapeseed Futures Extend Gains Amid Global Oilseed Strength

Market Movements

• Euronext (Paris):February rapeseed futures rose by 3.75 EUR, closing at 522 EUR/t, continuing the positive trend from earlier in the week.
• CBoT (Chicago):January soybeans gained 10 ct, closing at 993.75 ct/bu (364.82 EUR/t).
• Canola (Winnipeg):Prices increased by 12 CAD to 590.20 CAD/t (398.24 EUR/t).
• Palm Oil (Kuala Lumpur):Benchmark contracts climbed by 106 MYR to 5,138 MYR/t (1,012.96 EUR/t).

Key Market Drivers

1. Global Oilseed Support:
   • Higher prices for canola in Canada, soybeans in the US, and palm oil in Malaysia supported rapeseed futures.
   • A stronger euro limited gains in European markets.
2. Canadian Canola Outlook:
   • StatsCan reduced the 2024 canola crop estimate to 17.85 million tons, down from 19.0 million tons in the previous report and 19.19 million tons last year (-7%).
   • Analysts had expected a smaller reduction, averaging 18.51 million tons, driving additional buying interest.
3. US Export Data:
   • Soybeans: Weekly bookings reached 2.313 million tons for the 2024/25 season, near the high end of trade expectations (1.1–2.5 million tons). While this marked a 7% decline from the seasonal high, it represented a 65% increase compared to the same week last year.
   • Soybean Meal: Export sales of 280,540 tons were at the lower end of expectations (150,000–600,000 tons).
   • Soybean Oil: Sales totaled 19,514 tons, also on the lower side of projections (10,000–70,000 tons).
4. October Export Highlights:
   • Soybeans: US exports totaled 9.426 million tons, slightly surpassing last year’s volume and significantly higher than September levels.
   • Soybean Meal: Exports hit a record 1.28 million tons in October.

Outlook

The global oilseed market is experiencing bullish momentum, driven by reduced Canadian production, robust US export performance, and rising international palm oil prices. However, currency fluctuations, particularly the firm euro, may temper gains in European rapeseed markets.

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