Delayed Sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan

The cumin harvest is underway in Gujarat and Rajasthan, though excessive heat this year has delayed sowing by approximately 15 days. According to current trends:

• Gujarat is expected to achieve 70-75% of last year’s planting levels.
• Rajasthan is likely to exceed last year’s planting, reaching 100-110% of previous levels.

Farmers find current cumin prices attractive, encouraging continued sowing for the next 20-25 days. This trend suggests planting activity will extend until late December.

Current Price Will Not Fall Further

Export-quality cumin is currently priced at $0,58-0,59 per kg. A significant price drop is unlikely. Even in a bearish scenario, prices might only fall by $0,01 per kg to reach a base level of $0,57 per kg. Export trade remains active, and farmers often halt sales when prices dip, maintaining a natural floor for the market.

In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of $0,04-0,05 per kg, keeping the market stable. While demand above $0,61 per kg is weak, trading becomes more active when prices drop below $0,58 per kg.

Sluggish Global Demand

The current price of cumin is at a two-year low, driven by sluggish global demand. Exports to China, one of the largest buyers, remain limited as purchases are now based on necessity rather than speculation. China has cumin reserves but faces a smaller crop and increased spoilage.

Export volumes are averaging 13,000-15,000 tonnes per month, a trend expected to continue. While demand from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries remains steady, major changes in currency values are unlikely to disrupt trade. If prices stabilize between $0,58-0,59 per kg, trading volumes may see a slight increase.

Conclusion

Cumin prices are expected to remain rangebound in the near term, with limited fluctuations due to stable export demand and delayed planting in key producing regions. As global markets adjust to current price levels, trading activity may gradually increase, particularly if prices stabilize at attractive levels for buyers.





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