Exchange Rate Drives Competitive Export Pricing

The devaluation of Brazil’s currency has created a tug-of-war in the corn market. Exporters are buying aggressively due to favorable exchange rates, while domestic buyers struggle to secure supplies. The upcoming Copom meeting on December 11 could further impact the exchange rate with a potential increase in the Selic rate, intensifying price pressures.

Corn Prices Show Resilience Across Key Regions

Corn prices have remained firm in many regions, reflecting steady demand despite logistical and market challenges:

• Paraná: $0,16-$0,17 per kg (BRL 68-70).
• Goiás: $0,15-$0,16 per kg (BRL 65-67).
• São Paulo: $0,16-$0,17 per kg (BRL 69-71).
• Minas Gerais: $0,15-$0,16 per kg (BRL 65-67).
• Bahia: $0,15 per kg (BRL 65).

In regions like Mato Grosso, prices have hit a floor of $0,14 per kg (BRL 60), while limited supply in states such as Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina continues to hold prices steady.

Exports Surge as December Shipments Accelerate

Corn exports hit 5.1 million tonnes in November and are expected to reach 3-4 million tonnes in December. Exporters and domestic consumers have already secured stocks for December and January, with logistics at ports remaining active due to reduced soybean shipments. Additional shipments of 5 million tonnes are anticipated between December and January, supported by favorable exchange rates and increased selling interest from producers.

Futures Prices at Odds with Market Realities

Producers are facing challenges from speculative price movements on Brazil’s futures exchange, B3. Futures prices have been artificially pushed down to pressure physical sales, a tactic also observed in the fattened cattle market. However, with stable demand and tight supply, futures prices are likely to recover in alignment with market fundamentals.

Summer Corn Crop Offers Optimism

The summer corn crop is showing promising progress, supported by favorable rainfall in key regions. Early harvesting in Rio Grande do Sul, starting in January, will supply much of the state and neighboring Santa Catarina. Producers are considering harvesting for either silage or grain, with January prices in Missões holding at $0,17 per kg (BRL 70). Any downward pressure on prices during the harvest is expected to be short-lived due to strong demand.





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