Sugarcane Production Faces Challenges

India's sugarcane production for the current season (October 2024–September 2025) might fall below the initial estimate of 440 million tonnes. Pest infestations in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka, the country’s top producers, could reduce sugar availability.

In the first two months of the season, sugar production declined in key states. Uttar Pradesh produced 1,290,000 tonnes, slightly down from 1,305,000 tonnes last year. Maharashtra’s output dropped significantly to 460,000 tonnes from 1,350,000 tonnes, while Karnataka recorded a fall to 700,000 tonnes from 1,100,000 tonnes, according to the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF).

Delayed Crushing and Pests Impact Yields

Delayed sugarcane crushing and pest infestations have caused lower production this season. Millers in Uttar Pradesh reported a 10–15% drop in cane production in areas planted with the CO-0238 variety, heavily affected by 'red rot' and 'top borer' pests. Moradabad division suffered the most severe damage, while other districts experienced varying levels of infestation.

A digital survey by the Union Agriculture Ministry earlier flagged red rot disease in several districts of central and eastern Uttar Pradesh. In Maharashtra, three districts reported white grub infestations, while some areas also faced red rot. Industry experts noted that sugarcane yields are down by 10–15 tonnes per hectare compared to normal levels.

Karnataka Records Lower Yields

In Karnataka, 79 factories began crushing cane this season, up from 74 last year. However, white grub infestations in Belgaum, Vijaynagar, and Haveri districts affected yields. Kurbur Shantakumar, President of the Karnataka Sugarcane Growers Association, estimated cane production at 50 million tonnes, down from 56.5 million tonnes last year. Summer water stress further reduced yields, with productivity declining by 5–10%.

National Production of Sugarcane

The Union Agriculture Ministry projected national sugarcane production at 439.93 million tonnes, a 3% decline from last year’s 453.16 million tonnes. Lower acreage contributed to the decline. While initial estimates placed yields at 82 tonnes per hectare, higher than 79 tonnes per hectare in 2023-24, experts now expect a downward revision due to widespread pest issues. The government plans to release updated estimates in February-March.

India’s sugar production, including ethanol diversion, is expected to drop to 33.3 million tonnes, down from 34.06 million tonnes last year. The government predicts sugar output at 32 million tonnes, sufficient to meet domestic demand of 29–29.5 million tonnes, thanks to a strong carryover stock.

Ethanol diversion from sugarcane continues to grow. Oil marketing companies ordered 8.37 billion litres of ethanol for the current season, with 2.35 billion litres sourced from sugar-based plants. Of this, 1.85 billion litres will come from sugarcane juice or syrup, 440 million litres from B Heavy Molasses (BHM), and 60 million litres from C Heavy Molasses (CHM). The type of feedstock used impacts sugar availability, as CHM leaves more sugar while syrup diversion results in no sugar.

Conclusion

Pest infestations, delayed crushing, and water stress are creating challenges for India’s sugarcane production this season. While domestic sugar demand will be met, lower cane availability and higher ethanol diversion may tighten supplies. The industry will closely monitor the government’s revised estimates to understand the full impact.





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