Ukrainian Corn Prices Rise as Global Competition Intensifies
Ukrainian Corn Prices See Slight Increase
Ukraine's corn exports for the 2024/25 marketing year have reached 7.4 million tonnes as of December 4. This marks a 14% rise compared to last year's 6.47 million tonnes. Export prices at Ukrainian Black Sea ports climbed by $0,002-0,003 per kg, now standing at $0,20 per kg.EU's Reduced Interest in Ukrainian Corn
The European Union has shown reduced demand for Ukrainian corn. A weak euro and stable corn prices in Europe contribute to this decline. Ukrainian farmers face pressure to sell grain before South American harvests dominate the market.March corn futures in Paris remain stable at $0,22 per kg despite increased EU production forecasts.
The European Commission increased its corn production estimate to 59.6 million tonnes for 2024/25, slightly higher than earlier predictions. This adjustment, driven by better harvests in Romania and France, puts production only 3% below last year's total.
EU corn imports are expected to rise by 0.5 million tonnes to 19.5 million tonnes, while ending stocks are predicted to grow by 2 million tonnes to 19.4 million tonnes.
South America’s Rising Corn Supply
South America’s expanding corn production creates additional competition. Agroconsult raised Brazil’s 2024/25 production forecast to 132.7 million tonnes, with exports expected to hit 42 million tonnes. These figures show increases of 3.5% and 9.2%, respectively, over the previous season.Brazil has already sown 65% of its corn crop, ahead of last year’s 60% by the same date. Favorable weather conditions have supported timely planting.
Argentina has planted 41.3% of its planned 6.3 million hectares, and 97% of its corn crop is rated in good or excellent condition, indicating a strong harvest.
Global Corn Price Trends
- Chicago Board of Trade December futures rose by 1.4% to $0,17 per kg, maintaining last month's levels.
- Ukrainian corn export prices remain steady at $0,20 per kg, although traders exercise caution due to global price uncertainty.
Conclusion
Ukrainian corn prices are rising slightly despite challenges from South American competition and reduced EU demand. Farmers need to act swiftly to capitalize on current prices before South American supplies enter the market. The global corn market remains highly competitive, driven by robust harvests and shifting demand patterns.Â
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