Rapeseed and Soybean Markets: Profit-Taking and Uncertainties Shape Trade
Market Performance
- Euronext (Rapeseed):
- February contract fell by €3.25 to €526/t.
- Weekly gain narrowed to €18.25 (3.6%).
- CBoT (Soybeans):
- January contract remained unchanged at 993.75 ct/bu (€345.50/t).
- Weekly gain: 4.25 ct (0.4%).
- ICE (Canola):
- January's future surged by 18 CAD to 609 CAD/t, the highest since November 21.
- Weekly increase: 34.90 CAD (6.1%).
Market Drivers
- Rapeseed Market:
- Profit-taking and a stronger euro pressured Euronext rapeseed prices ahead of the weekend.
- Supportive factors: Lower canola output in Canada and stable palm oil prices.
- Soybean Market:
- Supported by steady vegetable oil prices and rising corn futures.
- Long-term concern: Ongoing fears of a trade war between the U.S. and China remain a bearish factor.
- Canola:
- StatsCan reduced Canada’s canola harvest forecast to 17.85 million tonnes (from 19.0 million tonnes).
- The sharper-than-expected cut (analysts forecasted 18.51 million tonnes) boosted prices.
- Palm Oil:
- Minor declines on Friday, but the February benchmark contract closed at 5,132 MYR/t (+2.3% weekly).
- Easing rainfall in Malaysia stabilizes the production outlook.
Outlook
- Rapeseed Prices:
- Bearish Factor: Expected record soybean harvest in South America.
- Supportive Factors: Reduced Canadian canola supply and stable palm oil prices.
- Uncertainty prevails, making price trends challenging to predict.
Profit-taking, global harvest revisions, and geopolitical uncertainties influence the markets. Short-term stability hinges on weather conditions and export developments.
