Rapeseed, Soybean, and Palm Oil Markets: Gains and Challenges

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Market Performance

• Euronext (Rapeseed):
  • February futures rose by €6.75 to a three-week high of €532.75/t.
• CBoT (Soybeans):
  • January soybean futures fell by 3.75 cents to 990 cents/bu (€345.50/t, approximately €0.345/kg).
  • Soybean oil declined, while soybean meal posted slight gains.
• ICE (Canola):
  • January futures increased by CAD 9.70 to CAD 618.70/t, a rise of CAD 40.50 since last Wednesday.
  • Prices surpassed the 100-day moving average, reflecting continued support from reduced supply.

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Key Market Factors

1. Rapeseed Market:
   • Gains were driven by strong demand and tighter supplies, pushing prices to a three-week high.
2. Canola Market:
   • Reduced supply following StatsCan’s sharp production cut continues to drive prices higher.
3. Palm Oil:
   • Prices weakened for the second consecutive day.
   • MPOB Report:
     • Palm oil inventories in Malaysia fell by 2.6% to 1.84 million tonnes in November, less than analysts’ expectations of 1.79 million tonnes.
     • Crude palm oil production dropped by 9.8% to 1.62 million tonnes, the lowest November figure since 2020.
     • Exports declined by 14.7% to 1.49 million tonnes, below the forecasted 1.52 million tonnes.

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Export Data

1. US Soybean Export Inspections:
   • Week ending December 5:
     • 1.622 million tonnes shipped, within the expected 1.3–2.2 million tonnes range.
     • Breakdown: 847,025 tonnes to China, 125,277 tonnes to Turkey, 142,036 tonnes to Italy.
   • Year-to-date exports:
     • Total: 23.438 million tonnes, up 19% year-on-year.

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Outlook

• Rapeseed Prices: Likely to remain supported by strong demand and tight supplies.
• Canola Market: Prices are expected to stay elevated due to continued supply concerns.
• Palm Oil: Weak demand and higher inventory levels may weigh on prices, while production constraints could provide support.
• Soybeans: Strong exports, particularly to China, remain a key bullish factor, though global uncertainties may limit price gains.

The interplay of production challenges, export trends, and market dynamics continues to shape the outlook for global oilseed and vegetable oil markets.

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