Incoming Crops Signal Slow Market Activity

The pigeon-pea market has started showing signs of a slowdown as fresh crops arrive from Karnataka. The supply chain is slowing down, and with Maharashtra’s harvest ready, traders expect further price declines. Today, prices dropped by USD 0,018 per kg (INR 1,50), and pulse mill inquiries suggest a possible reduction of USD 0,12 per kg (INR 10) in the coming weeks.

Despite a temporary rise of USD 0,024 per kg (INR 2) in pulses earlier, the market outlook for pigeon-pea remains bearish. Survey reports indicate favorable sowing conditions in both Karnataka and Maharashtra, with new crops steadily entering the market.

Current Market Trends

Pigeon-pea prices are on a downtrend, as reflected in today’s trading. Lemon pigeon-pea slipped to USD 1,17–1,18 per kg (INR 96,50–97) locally and USD 1,08 per kg (INR 89) in Chennai. Future projections are even less optimistic, with January-February goods estimated to sell at USD 0,89–0,90 per kg (INR 74–75).

For context, prices reached a high of USD 1,46 per kg (INR 121–122) in 2024. However, current trading levels of USD 1,17 per kg (INR 97) have failed to attract significant demand, signaling further declines.

Production and Consumption Imbalance

India’s pigeon-pea production last year was approximately 3,4 million metric tonnes, while consumption was nearly double at 6,8 million metric tonnes. Imports from Myanmar (Rangoon) have historically bridged this gap. However, with increased domestic sowing this year, particularly in Karnataka and Maharashtra, a more substantial crop is anticipated for 2025.

In the past, Western Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Andhra Pradesh were key producers during the Kharif season. Over time, farmers in these regions have shifted to cultivating vegetables due to better irrigation and higher profitability, reducing pigeon-pea production by nearly 10%.

What Lies Ahead for the Market?

With current prices under pressure and more supply entering the market, analysts expect a bearish trend to continue. A small, temporary price increase of USD 0,018–0,024 per kg (INR 1,50–2) could occur due to limited old stock, but the overall trend suggests a drop to USD 0,89–0,91 per kg (INR 80–82) by early 2025.

Farmers have increased sowing across key regions due to last year’s high prices, but consumption still outpaces production. With favorable weather in Myanmar and robust sowing conditions in India, pigeon-pea stocks are likely to remain ample next year, further pressuring prices.

Final Thoughts

Considering these market dynamics, traders are advised to avoid stockpiling pigeon-pea for now. With the potential for prices to drop further, it would be prudent to wait for more clarity on market trends before making significant purchases.





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