Black Sea Wheat Exports Under Pressure

Chicago wheat futures hit new contract lows this week, masking underlying global concerns about wheat supplies. The Black Sea region, a critical hub for global wheat exports, faces multiple risks. Russia’s winter wheat crops are in the worst condition on record, while Ukraine’s grain exports face new uncertainties.

Russia and Ukraine together accounted for one-third of global wheat exports last marketing year. Any disruptions in this region could have significant implications for global supply.

Ukraine’s Export Challenges Through Romania

Since the invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago, port infrastructure has been a key target for attacks, forcing exporters to seek alternative routes. Many turned to Romania’s Constanta port on the Black Sea. Which handled 14 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain in 2023—about 30% of Ukraine’s total grain exports.

However, a potential new Romanian president has proposed halting Ukrainian grain exports through the country. While this move may appeal to Romanian farmers concerned about local market competition, its feasibility remains unclear. Constanta’s increased grain traffic in 2023, up 22.5%, was driven largely by EU-funded infrastructure projects, which have also supported economic growth in the region.

Ukraine’s Export Adaptations

For the 2024-25 marketing year starting July 1, Ukraine’s wheat exports are projected to fall 14% compared to the previous year. Ukrainian grain shipments through Constanta have already dropped 52% in the first 10 months of 2024 as the country shifts back to relying on its own seaports.

While this diversification reduces reliance on Constanta, threats to Ukraine’s seaports remain constant due to the ongoing war. As of November 13, Ukrainian exporters had shipped half of the government-agreed wheat export volume for 2024-25, providing some relief amid the challenges.

Russian Wheat Crop Concerns

Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter, is grappling with unprecedented challenges. Winter wheat conditions are at their worst recorded levels. Raising questions about the country’s ability to maintain its dominant position in the global market. Poor weather and limited germination threaten yields for the 2025 season.

Conclusion

The Black Sea region’s wheat exports face significant risks from poor Russian crop conditions and ongoing threats to Ukraine’s grain export routes. While Ukraine has diversified its shipping strategies, disruptions in Constanta or at its seaports could still impact global supply chains. As the conflict continues and Russian wheat struggles with poor conditions, traders and global buyers should watch this region closely.





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