Corn Market: Gains at CBoT and Euronext
Corn Market: Gains at CBoT and Euronext
The most traded March contract at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) rose by 7.25 cents to 449 cents per bushel, marking the highest level in nearly five months. This equates to 176.64 USD per ton or approximately 160.75 EUR per ton (at an exchange rate of 1 USD = 0.91 EUR).The March contract increased by 1.25 EUR at the Euronext, closing at 207.25 EUR per ton.
WASDE Report: Significant Adjustments to U.S. Corn Balance
The WASDE Report, released Tuesday evening, included unexpected revisions to the U.S. corn balance sheet for the 2024/25 marketing year:- U.S. Exports: Revised by 3.8 million tons to 62.87 million tons, approximately 4.5 million tons higher than last year.
- Domestic Use: Increased by 1.3 million tons to 323 million tons, driven by strong demand from the bioethanol sector.
- Ending Stocks: Now projected at 44.15 million tons, down 5.1 million tons from November and 9 million tons lower than summer estimates.
Global Impact
The changes in the U.S. balance sheet also impacted the global corn outlook:- Global Ending Stocks: Reduced by 8 million tons to 296.4 million tons.
- Analysts had expected stocks between 302 and 305.33 million tons, significantly higher than the USDA estimate.
Adjustments for the EU
- Production: Reduced by 800,000 tons to 58 million tons.
- Consumption: Increased by 600,000 tons to 75.7 million tons.
- Imports: Revised up by 500,000 tons to 19.5 million tons.
- Ending Stocks: Decreased by 300,000 tons to 6.5 million tons.
Forecasts for Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, and China
- Argentina: Production forecast remains unchanged at 51 million tons.
- Brazil: Stable at 127 million tons.
- Ukraine: Harvest estimate increased by 300,000 tons to 26.5 million tons.
- The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture lowered its 2024/25 corn production estimate to 293.84 million tons (previously 297.01 million tons).
- The USDA maintained its forecast for China at 292 million tons in the WASDE Report.
The unexpected revisions in the WASDE Report and the evolving global supply-demand dynamics drive higher prices and suggest continued corn market volatility.