Favorable Weather Fuels Sugarcane Expansion

In India, high sugarcane harvest will lead to increased sugar production. Encouraged by abundant water supply and reduced prices of competing crops, millions of Indian farmers have increased sugarcane cultivation this year. Reservoirs in Maharashtra and Karnataka, which account for nearly half of India’s sugar production, are at optimal levels. For instance, the Ujani dam in Maharashtra is at 100% capacity, a significant improvement from 25% last December.

Amar Chavan, a farmer from Solapur district, shared, “Last year, we couldn’t plant sugarcane due to water scarcity. This year, the rains have been excellent, and we have enough water for irrigation.”

Record Harvest on the Horizon

India’s sugarcane-producing regions, including Maharashtra and Karnataka, received 39% more rain than the seasonal average, boosting planting activity. Farmers are sowing sugarcane at unprecedented levels, setting the stage for a record harvest in the 2025/26 marketing year.

According to the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories, the sugarcane planted this year will be ready for harvesting in the next marketing season. However, for the current season (2024/25), sugar production is estimated to fall to 28 million tonnes, down from 31.9 million tonnes last year. Despite this decline, annual consumption is projected at 29.6 million tonnes, keeping the domestic supply relatively balanced.

India’s Return to the Export Market

With increased sugarcane cultivation, India could resume exports in 2025/26 after a two-year hiatus. Experts predict exports ranging from 3–5 million tonnes, provided favorable weather continues and pest infestations remain under control.

India was the world’s second-largest sugar exporter, averaging 6.8 million tonnes annually over the five years leading up to 2022/23. Key export markets include Indonesia, Bangladesh, and the United Arab Emirates.

Traders believe India’s re-entry into the global market could stabilize international sugar prices, especially as Brazil, the largest producer, faces reduced shipments due to dry weather.

Global and Domestic Markets Are Benefited

India’s record sugar production is poised to benefit both domestic and international markets. Domestically, increased production will stabilize prices and secure adequate supply. Internationally, Indian exports are expected to offset global shortages caused by reduced output from other major producers.

However, experts caution that weather conditions and pest infestations will remain critical factors in determining whether India can meet its export potential next season.





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