Guar Seed Arrivals Decline, Prices Remain Subdued

Daily arrivals of guar seed in India have dropped to 50,000 bags, signaling a slowdown in supply. Current prices in mandis are $0,59 per kg, while guar gum is trading at $0,63–0,64 per kg, slightly above futures prices by $0,03–0,04 per kg.

As of December 9, total arrivals for the season stand at 3 million bags, down from 4.2–4.5 million bags during the same period last year. This represents a 1.2–1.5 million bag shortfall, reflecting the impact of a reduced crop this year.

Crop Estimates Cloud Production of Guar Gum

Guar production this season is estimated at 5.5–6 million bags, down by 2 million bags compared to last year’s 7 million bags. However, differing estimates among stakeholders create uncertainty over the exact production numbers.

In the Neheri belt, comprising Ganganagar, Hanumangarh, and Haryana, production has reached 1.5 million bags so far, compared to 3 million bags last year. With 70–75 percent of the crop already marketed, the region is expected to experience a total shortfall of 1.5 million bags this season.

Other regions, including Bikaner, Churu, and eastern Rajasthan, have seen 5 million bags of guar arrivals, representing 50–55 percent of the total seasonal income. Barmer and Gujarat are contributing daily arrivals of 5,000–6,000 bags and 4,000–5,000 bags, respectively.

Supply Struggles to Match Annual Demand

India’s annual guar demand stands at 10 million bags, with this year’s smaller crop of 5.5–6 million bags increasing reliance on stockpiles. Yearly production typically fluctuates by 2–2.5 million bags, adding to the market's volatility.

Despite lower availability, prices remain stagnant due to syndicate activity in the futures market, which has kept rates artificially low. Farmers are advised to hold their stock, as better prices are likely in the coming months.

Future Prospects: Can Guar-Gum Prices Recover?

Market experts believe guar-gum prices could rise sharply if demand picks up, particularly from the export and industrial sectors. The market’s dependence on existing stockpiles and reduced supply could lead to a price increase at any time.

Farmers are encouraged to avoid selling at current rates and wait for favorable market conditions, which could yield higher returns in the near future.

Conclusion

India’s guar-gum market faces low prices and reduced arrivals despite a smaller crop this season. The market remains in limbo, awaiting a recovery in demand. Holding stocks may prove advantageous as prices could rise with improved market activity.





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