Global Corn Stock Estimates Drop Significantly

The USDA's December supply and demand report lowered the global corn stock forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year by 20 million tonnes, compared to last year. This drop is attributed to reduced production forecasts and higher consumption, especially in ethanol processing in the U.S. and Brazil. Unlike the 2023/24 season, when production exceeded consumption by 10 million tonnes, this year’s consumption is expected to surpass production by 20 million tonnes.

Corn Futures React to the Report

Following the USDA report, December corn futures price on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 1.5% to $0,17 per kg (up 2.2% from November's post-report pricing). However, the increase was capped by a sharp reduction in China's import forecast, which dampened optimism in the market.

Changes in Global Corn Balance

The updated global corn balance for 2024/25 included several revisions:

• Opening Stocks: Increased by 2 million tonnes, now at 316.22 million tonnes, reflecting adjustments to last season's balance.
• Global Production: Reduced by 1.51 million tonnes to 1,217.89 million tonnes, with notable changes for:
  • Mexico: Down by 0.8 million tonnes to 23.7 million tonnes.
  • EU: Lowered by 0.8 million tonnes to 58 million tonnes, despite the European Commission’s recent forecast of 59.6 million tonnes, which the USDA did not include.
  • Ukraine: Increased by 0.3 million tonnes to 26.5 million tonnes.
  • Canada: Raised slightly to 15.35 million tonnes.
• Global Consumption: Increased by 8.18 million tonnes to a record 1,223.66 million tonnes, with higher estimates for:
  • Brazil: Up by 2 million tonnes.
  • USA: Up by 1.27 million tonnes.
  • EU: Up by 0.7 million tonnes.
• Ending Stocks: Slashed by 7.7 million tonnes to 296.44 million tonnes, falling short of analysts' expectations of 303.6 million tonnes.
  • USA: Forecasted at 44.15 million tonnes, down 5.08 million tonnes.
  • China: Reduced by 2 million tonnes to 204.27 million tonnes.

Trade Adjustments: Exports Rise, Imports Drop

Global export estimates rose by 3.21 million tonnes to 193.04 million tonnes, driven primarily by the U.S., whose exports were revised up by 3.81 million tonnes to 62.87 million tonnes. However, the global import forecast fell to 183.92 million tonnes, reflecting reduced demand from China, where imports were slashed by 2 million tonnes to 14 million tonnes.

Conclusion: Weather and Market Pressure

Good weather conditions in South America are supporting strong crop development, which could pressure prices in the latter half of the season. Meanwhile, lower import demand from China and increased availability of cheaper U.S. corn are keeping Ukrainian corn prices under strain. If global consumption doesn’t grow as expected, the corn balance may improve, easing price volatility.





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