Soybean Production Forecast Raised

The USDA has increased its global soybean production forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year to 427.14 million tonnes, up 1.74 million tonnes from the November estimate. This represents a sharp rise compared to 394.87 million tonnes in 2023/24 and 378.4 million tonnes in 2022/23. Key updates include:

• Argentina: Production estimates climbed by 1 million tonnes, now projected at 52 million tonnes, higher than last year’s 48.2 million tonnes.
• Brazil: The forecast remains at 169 million tonnes, though some local agencies have already suggested an increase to 170–172 million tonnes.
• Global Consumption: Consumption estimates rose to 403.64 million tonnes, with Argentina accounting for 48.6 million tonnes.
• Ending Stocks: Expected to reach 131.87 million tonnes, which is about 17.5% higher than last year’s 112.16 million tonnes.

Following the USDA report, January soybean futures in Chicago rose by 0.5%, now priced at about $0.36 per kg. Interestingly, this is still 2.2% lower compared to November’s data—something traders didn’t fully anticipate.

Canola Harvest Forecast Reduced

The USDA cut its global canola production forecast for 2024/25 by 1.06 million tonnes, bringing the total to 86.18 million tonnes, down from 89.9 million tonnes last year. Important updates include:

• Canada: The canola harvest projection was reduced by 1.2 million tonnes, now sitting at 18.8 million tonnes. However, Statistics Canada’s revised figure is even lower, at 17.8 million tonnes.
• Ukraine: Export estimates increased by 0.15 million tonnes to 3.37 million tonnes, while forecasts for Canada’s exports fell by 0.6 million tonnes to 6.75 million tonnes.
• China: The import forecast dropped to 3 million tonnes, reflecting a reduction of 0.4 million tonnes from earlier projections.

Ending stocks for canola are now projected at 7.19 million tonnes, a sharp drop from last year’s 10.1 million tonnes. February rapeseed futures on Paris MATIF increased slightly by 0.7%, reaching about $0.56 per kg, while canola on the Winnipeg exchange rose 0.4% to $0.44 per kg.

Final Thoughts

The oilseed markets will hinge on updates to South American soybean forecasts and Australia’s canola harvest data. Traders are watching closely, particularly as weather remains a wildcard for both regions.





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