Oilseed Markets: Slight Correction and Mixed Outlook
Market Performance
- Euronext (Rapeseed):
- After strong gains in recent days, a slight correction occurred on Wednesday.
- February futures fell by ā¬2 to ā¬534.50/t.
- CBoT (Soybeans):
- January soybeans gained 0.75 cents to 995.5 cents/bu (ā¬349/t, approx. ā¬0.349/kg).
- ICE (Canola):
- The five-day rally continued, albeit with smaller gains of 1.10 CAD, closing at CAD 630.70/t (ā¬424/t).
- Malaysia (Palm Oil):
- Palm oil prices declined significantly for the second consecutive day, weighing on the oilseed market.
Key Market Factors
- Rapeseed and Canola Markets:
- The rapeseed market in Europe has reached a level that prompted traders to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
- In Canada, the canola rally appears to be losing steam, with gains slowing after five consecutive sessions.
- Soybean Market:
- USA: Stronger corn prices supported the soybean market. The WASDE report brought only marginal changes and was viewed as neutral.
- Export Data: Traders expect 1.5ā2.2 million tonnes of soybean sales for the 2024/25 season, along with smaller volumes of soybean meal (175,000ā450,000 tonnes) and soybean oil (5,000ā100,000 tonnes).
- Palm Oil:
- Falling palm oil prices weighed on the broader oilseed market due to weaker demand and the potential for increased production.
- Russia:
- Acreage Expansion: According to Dmitry Rylko of IKAR, Russian farmers may expand oilseed planting by 1 million hectares to reach 19 million hectares by 2025.
- Profitability: Oilseeds proved more profitable than grains in 2024, which will likely influence planting decisions.
Outlook
- Rapeseed and Canola: Prices may stabilize after recent rallies as traders await new market drivers.
- Soybeans: Export figures are expected to shape market sentiment in the coming days.
- Palm Oil: Further price declines could increase pressure on other oilseed markets.
- Russia: Expansion of oilseed acreage may increase global supply in the medium term.
Global oilseed markets are navigating a mix of short-term corrections and long-term supply trends. Regional developments, such as Russia's expansion plans and U.S. export dynamics, will likely influence price trajectories.
