Production Drops, Prices Surge

The 2024/25 California walnuts crop is forecast at 600,000 inshell tons, marking a significant decrease compared to industry expectations. This lower output has pushed many packers to sell off inventory faster than planned, contributing to rising prices. For growers, this price increase offers some respite after facing unsustainably low prices in previous seasons. However, the smaller crop size limits the full potential of these benefits, creating a bittersweet situation for many in the industry.

Diverse Market Responses

The response to this year’s walnuts market has varied widely across regions. Key importers like Europe, Japan, the USA, and India continue to show robust demand despite climbing prices, reinforcing their positions as reliable markets for California walnuts. On the other hand, regions such as the Middle East and North Africa have pivoted toward Chinese-origin walnuts. These regions favor China's offerings due to their lower costs and higher meat yields, making them an attractive alternative.

Competitive Global Ups & Downs

The global walnut market is entering a pivotal phase. With China largely sold out and raising its prices, buyers are turning to alternative sources. Chile, for instance, is expected to adopt an aggressive pricing strategy in response to California’s current supply and pricing dynamics. These developments may further shift demand patterns, influencing California’s ability to maintain its market share in price-sensitive regions.

Conclusion: A Transformative Season

As the season unfolds, California walnut exporters face both opportunities and challenges. Strong demand from traditional markets may help offset the loss of price-sensitive buyers. However, the smaller crop size and rising competition from China and Chile underline the need for adaptability in pricing and marketing strategies. The coming months will likely define the trajectory for California’s walnut exports.





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