Rapeseed Market Impacted by Mosel River Disruption
Market Developments
- Euronext (Rapeseed):
- Most rapeseed futures declined on Thursday, except for the February contract, which rose by €3.50 to €538/t.
- The increase was driven by the closure of the Mosel River, disrupting rapeseed transport.
- Euronext announced late Wednesday that physical deliveries for February contracts at the Mosel River would be suspended, prompting traders to cover positions.
- CBoT (Soybeans):
- Soybeans mainly closed weaker on Thursday, although front-month contracts managed slight gains.
- January soybeans added 0.25 cents to 995.75 cents/bu (€349.25/t, approx. €0.349/kg).
- ICE (Canola):
- A five-day rally ended as profit-taking led the January contract to fall by CAD 3.50 to CAD 618.60/t.
Key Market Factors
- Rapeseed Market:
- Positive sentiment prevails due to high palm oil prices supporting rapeseed prices.
- Despite recent corrections, the February rapeseed contract benefited from logistical challenges caused by the Mosel River closure.
- Palm Oil:
- Malaysian palm oil prices recovered slightly on Thursday, with the February benchmark contract closing up 64 MYR or 1.32% at 4,920 MYR/t (1,109.36 USD/t).
- Palm oil remains unusually expensive compared to rapeseed oil, positively influencing rapeseed prices.
- Soybeans:
- Front-month soybean contracts at the CBoT are supported by strong export demand.
- On Thursday, the USDA reported a sale of 334,000 tonnes of soybeans to an undisclosed destination, likely China.
Outlook
- Rapeseed: The Mosel disruption will likely maintain upward pressure on February contracts while strong palm oil prices offer broader market support.
- Soybeans: Continued strong export demand, particularly from China, is expected to support front-month contracts.
- Palm Oil: High prices relative to rapeseed oil may stabilize, but ongoing volatility remains a risk factor.
The interplay of logistical challenges, export dynamics, and comparative vegetable oil prices will continue to shape global oilseed markets in the near term.