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Michael

Dec 13, 2024

Rapeseed Market Impacted by Mosel River Disruption

Rapeseed Market Impacted by Mosel River Disruption

Rapeseed Market Impacted by Mosel River Disruption




Market Developments

  • Euronext (Rapeseed):
    • Most rapeseed futures declined on Thursday, except for the February contract, which rose by €3.50 to €538/t.
    • The increase was driven by the closure of the Mosel River, disrupting rapeseed transport.
    • Euronext announced late Wednesday that physical deliveries for February contracts at the Mosel River would be suspended, prompting traders to cover positions.
  • CBoT (Soybeans):
    • Soybeans mainly closed weaker on Thursday, although front-month contracts managed slight gains.
    • January soybeans added 0.25 cents to 995.75 cents/bu (€349.25/t, approx. €0.349/kg).
  • ICE (Canola):
    • A five-day rally ended as profit-taking led the January contract to fall by CAD 3.50 to CAD 618.60/t.





Key Market Factors

  1. Rapeseed Market:
    • Positive sentiment prevails due to high palm oil prices supporting rapeseed prices.
    • Despite recent corrections, the February rapeseed contract benefited from logistical challenges caused by the Mosel River closure.
  2. Palm Oil:
    • Malaysian palm oil prices recovered slightly on Thursday, with the February benchmark contract closing up 64 MYR or 1.32% at 4,920 MYR/t (1,109.36 USD/t).
    • Palm oil remains unusually expensive compared to rapeseed oil, positively influencing rapeseed prices.
  3. Soybeans:
    • Front-month soybean contracts at the CBoT are supported by strong export demand.
    • On Thursday, the USDA reported a sale of 334,000 tonnes of soybeans to an undisclosed destination, likely China.





Outlook

  • Rapeseed: The Mosel disruption will likely maintain upward pressure on February contracts while strong palm oil prices offer broader market support.
  • Soybeans: Continued strong export demand, particularly from China, is expected to support front-month contracts.
  • Palm Oil: High prices relative to rapeseed oil may stabilize, but ongoing volatility remains a risk factor.
The interplay of logistical challenges, export dynamics, and comparative vegetable oil prices will continue to shape global oilseed markets in the near term.
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