Corn Market: Consolidation at CBoT Amid Argentine Drought Delays
After substantial gains earlier in the week, corn consolidated at the
Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) on Thursday. The most actively traded March futures contract fell by
4.75 cents, closing at
443.5 cents per bushel, equivalent to
170.14 USD per ton or approximately
154.83 EUR per ton (based on an exchange rate of 1 USD = 0.91 EUR). At the
Euronext, corn ended mixed, supported by a weaker euro. The March contract declined by
0.50 EUR, settling at
208 EUR per ton.
Market Influences
- Profit-Taking Following Multi-Month Highs: After falling U.S.-ending stocks lifted prices earlier in the week, cooling export demand triggered profit-taking on Thursday.
- Weak Export Data: The USDA’s weekly export sales report showed the lowest results in 11 weeks:
- Sales for the week ending December 5: 946,863 tons for the current marketing year.
- This was below expectations of 1.1 to 1.9 million tons, marking a 45% drop compared to the prior week and a 33% decline from last year.
South American Developments
- Brazil:The agricultural agency CONAB lowered its forecast for Brazil’s corn harvest by 0.18 million tons to 119.63 million tons. The estimate for the second crop remained unchanged at 94.63 million tons. However, this week, the USDA’s WASDE Report projected Brazil’s corn harvest to be much higher, 127 million tons.
- Argentina:Farmers are waiting for rain to resume planting. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, planting has been suspended due to drought conditions in Cordoba, one of Argentina’s key growing regions.
- Planted area: Expected at 6.3 million hectares, with 56% already sown.
- Of the emerged corn, 98% is in normal to excellent condition, reflecting resilience in areas with sufficient moisture.
Outlook
Corn prices will likely remain volatile as markets balance U.S. inventory concerns with fluctuating export demand and mixed South American production prospects. Weather developments in Argentina and export trends will be key factors to watch in the coming days.
