Rapeseed and Soybean Markets: Mosel Closure Drives Rapeseed Prices, Global Trends Mixed
Market Performance
- Euronext (Rapeseed):
- The February 2025 contract rose by €9 on Friday, closing at €547/t, the highest level for this contract in over two years.
- Weekly gains for the February contract totalled €21 (4.0%), while the May contract rose by only €10 (1.9%).
- CBoT (Soybeans):
- The January contract dropped 7.5 cents to 988.25 cents/bu (€346/t, approx. €0.346/kg), recording a weekly loss of 5.5 cents (0.5%).
- ICE (Canola):
- The January contract declined by CAD 6.10 to CAD 612.50/t, shrinking its weekly gain to CAD 3.50 (0.6%).
Key Market Drivers
- Rapeseed Market (Europe):
- The Mosel River closure continues to push prices higher as logistical challenges impact deliveries.
- Despite planned emergency lock operations to free approximately 70 stranded ships, the overall situation remains unresolved, with normal freight operations potentially months away.
- Spot prices for old crop rapeseed in southern Germany climbed above €540/t, reaching their highest level since February 2023.
- Canola (Canada):
- Uncertainty persists as farmers capitalize on recent price increases for sales.
- Concerns over potential Chinese tariffs and trade tensions with the U.S. weigh the market sentiment.
- Palm Oil:
- Malaysian palm oil prices fell by 4.4% last week, extending losses despite expectations of a fourth consecutive monthly decline in December production.
- Heavy rainfall has disrupted harvests, which may limit further price drops.
- Soybeans:
- CFTC Report: Financial investors reduced their net short positions in soybean futures by 13,897 to 58,320 contracts.
- USDA: On Friday, a private sale of 200,000 tonnes of soybeans to undisclosed destinations for the 2024/25 season was announced.
Outlook
- Rapeseed: Prices will likely remain elevated as the Mosel logistics disruptions persist. However, declining canola and palm oil prices globally could exert downward pressure.
- Soybeans: Strong export demand, particularly to China, will continue to support the market. The upcoming NOPA report may provide additional market direction.
- Palm Oil: Weather-related production constraints may stabilize prices despite weak demand.
Regional challenges, such as logistics issues in Europe and geopolitical uncertainties in North America, shape the global oilseed markets. Weather and trade dynamics will be pivotal in determining market trajectories in the coming weeks.
