Rapeseed Prices Decline Amid Profit-Taking and Global Oilseed Weakness
Market Performance
- Euronext (Rapeseed):
- The February 2025 contract fell by €5.25 to €541.75/t on Monday.
- CBoT (Soybeans):
- The January contract declined by 6.25 cents to 982 cents/bu (€346/t, approx. €0.346/kg).
- Conversion: 1 bushel of soybeans = 27.216 kg, equating to approximately €346/t or €0.346/kg.
- ICE (Canola):
- The March contract dropped by CAD 13.90 to CAD 610.10/t.
Key Market Drivers
- Profit-Taking in Rapeseed:
- After substantial gains last week, profit-taking pushed rapeseed prices lower on the Euronext.
- Prices also declined sharply in the German cash market, with losses of up to €12/t in the west.
- The short-term supply situation in Germany eased slightly as ships stranded on the Mosel River resumed their journeys towards the Rhine using a provisional lock system.
- Pressure from Vegetable Oil Markets:
- Soybean oil in Chicago fell by over 2%.
- Palm oil futures in Malaysia declined for the second consecutive session, closing 1.2% lower.
- Canola on the ICE in Winnipeg faced double-digit losses following recent gains driven by Canada’s lower crop estimate.
- Brazilian Soybean Production:
- The sowing season in Brazil is practically complete, with recent rainfall creating favourable conditions for crop development.
- Forecasts:
- AgRural: 171.5 million tonnes.
- USDA: 169 million tonnes.
- COBAB: 166.1 million tonnes.
- AgRural will provide a revised forecast during the harvest at the end of January.
- US Soybean Exports:
- Export inspections (week ending December 12):
- Shipments totalled 1.676 million tonnes, down 3.5% week-on-week but 17.6% higher than the same week in 2023.
- Key destinations:
- China: 1.026 million tonnes.
- Mexico: 191,759 tonnes.
- Year-to-date shipments: 25.23 million tonnes (+19.1% year-on-year).
- NOPA Data on US Soybean Crushing:
- November figures were slightly disappointing:
- Soybean crushing: 193.185 million bushels.
- Conversion: 193.185 million bu ≈ 5.26 million tonnes (1 bushel = 27.216 kg).
- This represents a 3.4% drop from October’s record but remains the largest November volume on record, up 2.2% year-on-year.
- Soybean oil stocks:
- Stocks rose to 1.084 billion lbs (October: 1.074 billion lbs).
- Analysts had expected a higher increase to 1.123 billion lbs.
Outlook
- Rapeseed: Prices remain vulnerable to further profit-taking as Germany's supply situation stabilizes.
- Canola: Uncertainties around demand and Canada’s production outlook may limit further upside potential.
- Soybeans: Brazilian production forecasts and strong U.S. export demand remain key market drivers.
- Vegetable Oils: Weak palm oil and soybean oil prices continue to weigh on the broader oilseed complex.
Oilseed markets face pressure from profit-taking, global crop forecasts, and declining vegetable oil prices. Improved logistics on the Mosel River may further alleviate supply tensions in Europe, adding additional downward pressure on rapeseed prices.
