Russian Wheat Sets the Tone for Global Markets

Russian wheat prices have seen a notable rise, prompting increases in European and Ukrainian wheat quotes, while American grain prices dropped by 1-3% over the past month due to declining export demand.

Export demand for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein and January delivery increased by USD 0,24 per kg to a two-month high of USD 0,235 per kg FOB, driven by strong demand from North African countries, according to Rusagrotrans.

During the same period:

• French wheat prices rose by USD 0,002 per kg to USD 0,242 per kg.
• German wheat remained stable at USD 0,254 per kg FOB.
• American wheat prices fell by USD 0,005 per kg to USD 0,244 per kg FOB.

Rising Ukrainian Wheat Prices

In Ukraine, the devaluation of the hryvnia contributed to higher wheat prices in Black Sea ports:

• Food wheat prices increased to USD 0,209-0,214 per kg.
• Feed wheat prices rose to USD 0,204-0,205 per kg.

At the port of Constanta, food wheat reached USD 0,227-0,228 per kg, and feed wheat hit USD 0,225-0,226 per kg, signaling potential for further price increases. Processors actively purchased food wheat at USD 0,212-0,225 per kg, while farmers withheld sales, and traders limited purchases due to reduced export demand.

Ukrainian Export Trends

In the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukraine exported 9,2 million tonnes of wheat, a 37% increase from 2023. However, December exports slowed to 213,000 tonnes, a sharp decline from 814,000 tonnes during the same period in 2023.

Global Wheat Futures and European Strength

March wheat futures experienced mixed performance:

• Chicago SRW wheat fell by 0.4% to USD 0,202 per kg (-2.9% for the month).
• Kansas City HRW wheat dropped by 0.4% to USD 0,205 per kg (-1.4%).
• Minneapolis HRS wheat declined by 0.3% to USD 0,22 per kg (-0.7%).

Conversely, Paris Euronext wheat futures rose by 1.7% to USD 0,245 per kg, supported by Saudi Arabia’s tender results. The state agency GFSA purchased 804,000 tonnes of milling wheat with 12.5% protein (including European origin) at USD 0.269 per kg CFR, exceeding expectations.

EU and US Export Dynamics

European wheat exports struggled due to high prices, increased production in Argentina and Australia, and strong Russian supplies. EU countries exported 10,2 million tonnes of wheat in the 2024/25 marketing year, a 29% decline from the previous year.

US wheat exports, however, rose by 20% during early December, totaling 11,537 million tonnes for the season, a 29.4% increase year-on-year.

Russian Wheat Exports Maintain Momentum

Russia’s wheat export pace remains high. December shipments are expected to reach 3-3,5 million tonnes, with the first half of the season totaling 28-28,5 million tonnes. As of December 1, Russia had shipped 25,3 million tonnes of wheat, underscoring its dominant position in the global market.





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