Broad Declines Across Agricultural Commodities

On Tuesday, agricultural markets in both the United States and Europe saw widespread declines. In Chicago, wheat dropped 0.9%, corn fell 0.3%, soybeans decreased 0.5%, and rapeseed saw the largest decline, down 1.2%. Similarly, European markets recorded losses across key commodities, including milling wheat, corn, rapeseed, and feed wheat, all closing in negative territory.

Traders Focus on 2025 Trends

As the year-end approaches, many traders are turning their attention to 2025. “I’m looking forward to the USDA report in January and the new administration,” commented Linda Meyer from AgriSource, hinting at potential shifts in agricultural policy and market dynamics.

The December WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report from the USDA failed to bolster market sentiment. Despite highlighting ample supplies, the report did not indicate sufficient demand growth to balance the market.

Reduced Russian Wheat Crop Poses Long-Term Risks

SovEcon, a Black Sea agricultural research firm, predicts that Russia’s wheat harvest in 2025 will be its smallest in four years, estimated at USD 0,79 per kg (78.7 million tonnes). Winter wheat production, in particular, is expected to suffer from adverse weather conditions.

“In Russia, the world's number one wheat exporter, crop conditions may be among the worst in recent decades,” stated Andrei Sizov of SovEcon. He added that these challenges could lead to a rise in global wheat prices over the long term. “The global wheat supply and demand balance remains tight. We believe these factors are not yet priced into the market.”

European Markets Reflect Frosty Sentiment

European markets mirrored the declines seen in the U.S.:

• Milling wheat dropped USD 0,23 per kg .
• Corn fell USD 0,21 per kg.
• Rapeseed experienced a significant decline of USD 0,54 per kg.
• Feed wheat decreased by USD 0,19 per kg .

Conclusion

While traders remain cautious heading into 2025, factors like reduced Russian wheat production and shifting global trade dynamics are expected to shape market conditions. The deteriorating crop outlook in Russia, coupled with strong competition from South America, underscores the complex challenges ahead for agricultural markets worldwide.





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