The latest November 2024 Position Report from the Almond Board of California reveals impressive figures: The industry is sending positive signals with record shipments exceeding 123,000 metric tons and strong export growth. While domestic shipments slightly declined, markets in Europe and Turkey experienced significant growth. The total crop is now expected to range between 1.18 and 1.25 million metric tons, slightly below initial forecasts, but the quality of almonds continues to impress across the board. A stable market with high prices and exciting prospects for the months ahead!

Almonds November 2024 Position Report: Record Shipments and Robust Market Performance

---

November 2024 Position Report by the Almond Board of California

Receipts

• November receipts: 225,463 metric tons, a 6.8% decrease compared to 241,757 in November 2023.
• Year-to-date (YTD): 1,062,645 metric tons, a 25.4% increase from 846,998 metric tons last year.
• Projected total crop: Between 1,179,340 metric tons (90% received) and 1,251,762 metric tons (85% accepted). A crop exceeding 1,270,058 metric tons is now considered unlikely.

Shipments

• November shipments: 123,112 metric tons, up 13.9% compared to 108,109 metric tons in November 2023 and exceeding the industry expectation of 104,326 metric tons.
  • This set a new record for November, surpassing the previous high of 119,295 metric tons in 2020.
  • YTD shipments: 413,309 metric tons, nearly flat compared to 415,129 metric tons last year (-0.4%).

Regional Highlights

• Domestic shipments:
  • 24,698 metric tons, a 9.8% decrease compared to 27,379 metric tons last year.
  • While domestic shipments fluctuate month-to-month, YTD figures are only down 0.75%. A rebound is expected in December.
• Export shipments:
  • 98,414 metric tons, up 21.9% from 80,690 metric tons last year.
  • Europe: Strongest month ever, driven by restocking after low carryover at the start of the crop year. Despite this, YTD shipments remain 3% behind last year.
  • Turkey: Exceptional growth (+72%), supported by Middle Eastern demand ahead of Ramadan.
  • India: Shipments declined 23% year over year after three consecutive months of low activity. Stock replenishment is expected soon.
  • China: Weak performance as buyers seek non-tariff-affected almonds from alternative origins.

Sales & Commitments

• November sales: 95,011 metric tons, a slight increase of 0.6% compared to 94,399 metric tons last year.
  • Shorter November (due to Thanksgiving) resulted in slightly lower activity compared to earlier months in the crop year.
• 2024 crop commitments:
  • 277,468 metric tons, down 5.5% from 293,705 metric tons last year.
  • Forward sales remain limited, with California growers primarily focusing on short-term (3 months) sales.
• Uncommitted inventory: 578,228 metric tons, up 19.4% from last year. This figure is expected to stabilize as receipts finalize.

Market Conditions

• Quality: Outstanding almond quality, minimal damage and attractive sizing (23/25 and 25/27 for Nonpareil, Carmel, and Independence varieties). Smaller sizes remain limited.
• Currency: The strong USD continues to influence the competitiveness of California almonds in international markets.

Outlook

• December shipments: Expected to remain robust, driven by strong November sales.
• Prices: Stability at elevated levels is anticipated due to strong demand in most regions. Significant price swings are unlikely until after February’s bloom.
• Key markets:
  • Europe: Expected to continue buying almonds to replenish stocks.
  • India: Likely to purchase significant volumes in the coming months to restock depleted inventories.

Click here to reach our trading platfrom CMBroker