Corn Prices Under Pressure from Weak Soybean and Wheat Markets
Market Performance
- CBoT (Corn):
- The March contract dropped by 6.25 cents to 437.25 cents/bu (€166/t, approx. €0.166/kg).
- Euronext (Corn):
- The March contract fell by €0.50 to close at €207.25/t.
Key Market Drivers
- Weakness in Soybean and Wheat Markets:
- Declining soybean and wheat prices weighed on the corn market.
- Losses at the CBoT were limited by U.S. government plans to extend the sale of E15 ethanol to July through September, which could boost demand from the bioethanol industry.
- South American Harvest Prospects:
- Brazil: Expectations of a large corn harvest add downward pressure on global prices.
- Argentina: Deteriorating conditions have halted planting in parts of Córdoba province due to a lack of rainfall.
- Planting progress: 56% of the planned 6.3 million hectares.
- Crop condition: 98% of the planted areas are rated as usual or excellent.
- USDA Export Sales:
- The USDA reported a private export sale of 135,000 tonnes of corn to Colombia for the 2024/25 marketing year.
- Weekly export sales expectations:
- For 2024/25: 800,000–1.6 million tonnes.
- For 2025/26: 0–100,000 tonnes.
- EIA Ethanol Report:
- Ethanol production for the week ending December 13 increased by 25,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.103 million bpd.
- Ethanol stocks decreased by 12,000 barrels to 22.636 million barrels.
- Exports rose by 40,000 bpd to 163,000 bpd.
- Deliveries to refineries increased by 20,000 bpd to 903,000 bpd.
Outlook
- Corn: The market remains under pressure from Brazilian harvest expectations, though increased ethanol demand may provide potential support.
- South America: Weather conditions in Argentina will remain critical for planting progress and yield potential.
- US Exports: The USDA’s weekly export sales data will further clarify demand trends.
- Ethanol: Increased production and lower stock levels may help stabilize U.S. corn prices soon.
Corn markets are currently caught between the bearish outlook of ample global supplies and potential support from domestic ethanol developments. Weather uncertainties in South America will play a key role in price movements over the coming weeks.
