Corn Market: Mixed Performance at CBoT and Euronext on Thursday

Corn prices at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) closed higher on Thursday, supported by gains in the soybean market. The March contract rose by 3.5 cents, settling at 437.25 cents per bushel, equivalent to 167.47 USD per ton or approximately 152.40 EUR per ton (based on an exchange rate of 1 USD = 0.91 EUR). At the Euronext, corn futures ended mixed, with the March contract dropping by 1.75 EUR to 205 EUR per ton, marking a three-week low.

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Forecasts for 2025 Corn and Barley Production

• Strategie Grains:On Friday, Strategie Grains released its first forecast for the 2025 EU corn harvest:
  • Corn production is expected to rise to 59.6 million tons, up from 57.9 million tons last year.
  • Improved yields are anticipated to offset the reduction in planted areas.
  • For barley, production is projected at 50.6 million tons for 2025/26, similar to this year’s 50.3 million tons, as yield recovery is expected to compensate for reduced acreage.
• COCERAL:The agricultural trade association COCERAL also provided an early outlook for 2025:
  • Barley production in the EU and the UK: Total production is forecasted at 59.7 million tons, up from 57.3 million tons this year.
    • EU production: 51.9 million tons (up from 50.4 million tons).
    • UK production: 7.8 million tons (up from 7.0 million tons).
  • Corn production in the EU: Expected to rise to 61.9 million tons in 2025, compared to 60.2 million tons this year. Southeastern Europe is expected to recover after drought and heat losses this year significantly.
  • UK corn production remains negligible.

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USDA Weekly Export Report

The USDA Export Report for the week ending December 12 showed corn bookings of 1.175 million tons for the 2024/25 marketing year:

• Details:
  • At the lower end of expectations (800,000 to 1.6 million tons).
  • 24% higher than the previous week.
  • 10% below the four-week average.

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Market Outlook

While the Chicago corn market benefited from gains in the soybean market, European corn prices remained under pressure, reaching a multi-week low. Forecasts for higher corn production in 2025 in the EU and Southeastern Europe and moderate export activity suggest a stable but cautious market outlook in the near term.

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