The turmeric market in India has been in a state of flux, with prices struggling to find stable ground. Although occasional increases have sparked brief optimism, consistent selling pressure and an expected surge in supply from new crop arrivals are dampening hopes for a significant recovery.

Nizamabad Leads the Way in Turmeric Sowing

Farmers in Nizamabad are reporting higher sowing activity this season compared to last year. Preliminary observations suggest that production could increase by 25 to 30%, marking a significant recovery. Fresh turmeric from this key region is expected to begin arriving by mid-January, influencing market trends by February. Other major turmeric-producing areas such as Sangli, Erode, Basmat Nagar, Cuddapah, Warangal, and Hingoli are also preparing to bring their crops to market, which will further add to the supply.

Carryover Stock Keeps Prices in Check

In 2023, turmeric production in India was estimated at 5 to 6 million bags, which was significantly lower than usual. This shortfall initially spurred active buying, pushing prices in Nizamabad to USD 2,04 to 2,10 per kg in April. However, the market’s upward momentum was curbed by large carryover stocks that flooded the market whenever prices climbed.

For the upcoming season, production is projected to rise to 8 to 8.5 million bags, with new arrivals in January contributing an estimated 1.8 to 2 million bags. This ample supply is likely to keep prices subdued, preventing a significant rally.

India’s Role in the Global Turmeric Trade

India remains the dominant player in the global turmeric market, contributing 80% of the world’s production. However, increased production in other countries could present challenges for Indian exporters. Despite these concerns, November 2024 exports reached 14,068 tonnes, a notable rise from 8,583 tonnes during the same period last year. While this increase is a positive sign, it has not translated into higher domestic prices.

With fresh crop arrivals imminent, the market faces additional pressure. Increased supply, locally known as "chikwali," is expected to outpace demand, leading to a possible softening of prices after mid-January. Although prices are currently stable, traders remain cautious, anticipating more downward pressure as availability grows.

Conclusion: Turmeric Market Faces a Delicate Balance

As new turmeric crops enter the market, traders and farmers must navigate a landscape shaped by rising production and significant carryover stock. While exports provide a glimmer of hope, domestic market conditions suggest that prices may face additional challenges in the months ahead. Staying informed and planning strategically will be essential for navigating this complex market environment.





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