The cashew market has hit a seasonal low, with prices dropping by nearly 8 percent compared to the highs seen a few months ago. Robust East African crops and weaker demand following Diwali are driving this trend.

Vietnam WW320 kernels (AFI quality) are now priced between USD 1,60-1,62 per kg (f.o.b), according to J. Rajmohan Pillai, Chairman of Beta Group, which owns the NutKing brand. In India, kernel export prices have slipped below USD 1,70 per kg, while raw cashew nut prices are USD 1,59 per kg in Guinea Bissau, USD 1,88 per kg in Indonesia, and USD 1,86 per kg in Tanzania.

“Although the market is experiencing a lull, January festivals and the New Year could spark renewed demand, helping stabilize prices,” said Pillai.

Strong Harvests and Weak Demand Weigh on Prices

The drop in cashew prices stems from two main factors: a bumper crop in East Africa and a typical post-Diwali decline in sales.

Pratap Nair, Managing Partner of Vijayalaxmi Cashew Company, attributed the price dip to the abundant harvest, which has alleviated supply issues.

“December is always a quieter month for cashew consumption,” said Nair. “But the wedding season starting in January should revive demand. Combined with March’s crop arrivals, we expect better balance in the market.”

Earlier in 2024, El Niño-related impacts reduced yields in West Africa, India, and Vietnam, causing prices to rise. However, strong East African harvests and the usual drop in demand after Diwali have now pushed prices back down.

Predictions for 2025: A Steady Market Ahead

Giridhar Prabhu, Chairman of Atal Group, foresees subdued demand for cashew kernels in the first four months of 2025 as buyers draw down existing inventories. While he doesn’t anticipate a sharp rise in prices, he expects steady buying patterns to maintain market stability.

“Domestically, India’s new crop looks promising,” Prabhu said. “Flowering has started thanks to favorable moisture levels, and we anticipate harvesting to begin by mid-March and last through May. This could lead to a stronger crop.”

Prabhu also predicts that farmers may see 15-20 percent higher prices compared to the last three years' averages, thanks to steady demand and improved yields.

Global cashew markets will depend on key crops from West Africa, Cambodia, and Vietnam. The West African crop, in particular, is expected to be slightly better than last year, which should further stabilize prices.

Conclusion 

If you’re a buyer or trader, keep an eye on the market as demand could pick up in January due to festivals and weddings. For those holding inventories, March’s new crop arrivals may offer better opportunities for bulk purchases at competitive prices.





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